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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

   - Joeri Rogelj <>
   - Alexander Popp
   - […]
   - Massimo Tavoni

   - *Nature Climate Change* (2018)
   - doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
   - Download Citation
      - Climate-change mitigation
      - Energy and society
      - Energy modelling <>
      - Socioeconomic scenarios

Received:03 April 2017Accepted:26 January 2018Published online:05 March 2018


The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit
global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can
meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we
describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2,
and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C.
We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under
different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five
Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable
to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2scenarios are characterized by a
rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale
low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal.
However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under
SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered
short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to
understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

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