Andrew

I must object to your claim that the rapid control of marine cloud brightening is risky.

Control engineers will tell you that they like systems with a single, dominant phase lag. You are right in saying that the effects of marine cloud brightening fade quickly but the world's response is set by the very large thermal inertia of the oceans acting as a heat store.   This may be a bit slower than the effects of stratospheric sulphur on land.

An attractive feature is that we can stop the input signal very quickly following an unpredicted volcanic eruption or a new ice age.  We have a degree of local and seasonal adjustment.  We can aslo taper off in a controlled way as carbon removal technologies ramp up.

People who are worried about termination effects should ask whether they would prefer a process which was irreversible.  That would really scare me.

May I repeat my previous observation that the loss of power generation is catastrophic in 20 milliseconds, the internet in two seconds, air traffic control in two minutes, water and sewage and food distribution in about two days.

Compared with these, ten years is a long time to fix or replace spray vessels.

Stephen


On 13/03/2018 18:43, Andrew Lockley wrote:
It's complicated to answer. The MCB fade out period is days not years, so the simple answer is that MCB is more risky. But the real answer depends in system vulnerability, which in turn depends on a complex interacting network of social, political and technical risks

Andrew

On Tue, 13 Mar 2018, 18:30 E Durbrow, <durb...@gmail.com <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>> wrote:

    Would some kind person tell me if I got these claims wrong?

    Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Aerosol SRM are *not*
    equivalently risky.

    While both have the possibility of termination shock and regional
    variation, these two risks are lower in MCB.

    I’m worried that the discussion on termination shock is treating
    all SRM methods as equivalent…

    Thanks for pointing me to a publication indicating that MCB and
    Stratospheric/High Altitude SRM are roughly equally risky.

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