Andrew, This is not the first time that termination shock has been predicted for a CDR technique. It was predicted for artificial upwelling by Oschlies et al. (2010) - see https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL041961 - open access!
They said in the abstract "A second caveat predicted by our simulations is that whenever artificial upwelling is stopped, simulated surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise quickly and for decades to centuries to levels even somewhat higher than experienced in a world that never engaged in artificial upwelling." Chris. On Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 10:42:34 PM UTC, Andrew Lockley wrote: > > Poster's note : Cross posted due the the curious existence of termination > shock (previously thought of as an SRM artefact) in a CDR technique > > https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077847 > > Enhanced Rates of Regional Warming and Ocean Acidification After > Termination of Large‐Scale Ocean Alkalinization > Miriam Ferrer González Tatiana Ilyina Sebastian Sonntag Hauke Schmidt > First published: 21 June 2018 > https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077847 > Cited by: 1 > About > Sections > > > Abstract > Termination effects of large‐scale artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) > have received little attention because AOA was assumed to pose low > environmental risk. With the Max Planck Institute Earth system model, we > use emission‐driven AOA simulations following the Representative > Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We find that after termination of AOA > warming trends in regions of the Northern Hemisphere become ∼50% higher > than those in RCP8.5 with rates similar to those caused by termination of > solar geoengineering over the following three decades after cessation (up > to 0.15 K/year). Rates of ocean acidification after termination of AOA > outpace those in RCP8.5. In warm shallow regions where vulnerable coral > reefs are located, decreasing trends in surface pH double (0.01 units/year) > and the drop in the carbonate saturation state (Ω) becomes up to 1 order of > magnitude larger (0.2 units/year). Thus, termination of AOA poses higher > risks to biological systems sensitive to fast‐paced environmental changes > than previously thought. > > Plain Language Summary > Climate engineering (CE) methods are intended to alleviate the > environmental perturbations caused by climate change and ocean > acidification. However, these methods can also lead to environmental > issues. Among all the different CE techniques, the method of artificial > ocean alkalinization (AOA) is commonly discussed. AOA involves the release > of processed alkaline minerals into the ocean, which enhances the uptake of > atmospheric carbon by the ocean while reducing the acidification of > seawater. We study the impacts caused by the termination of AOA on > environmental properties that are relevant for organisms and ecosystems > because they are sensitive not only to the magnitude of environmental > change but also to its pace. We analyze the rate at which the environment > changes after termination of this method using an Earth system model that > simulates the response of our climate to CE. We found that the abrupt > termination of large‐scale implementation of AOA leads to regional rates of > surface warming and ocean acidification, which largely exceed the pace of > change that the implementation of AOA was intended to alleviate. This > enhanced rate of environmental change would restrict even more the already > limited adaptive capacity of vulnerable organisms and ecosystems. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
