https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v79/n2/p151-162/

Volcanic mega-eruptions may trigger major cholera outbreaks
Zsolt Pinke1,2,*, Stephen Pow3, Zoltán Kern4

*Corresponding author: pinkezs...@gmail.com
ABSTRACT: Reviewing the results of environmental epidemiology,
post-volcanic climatology, and environmental history, we focused
exclusively on volcanic eruption-ENSO and ENSO-cholera connections in order
to establish a hypothesis that large tropical and Northern Hemisphere
volcanic eruptions trigger an environmentally driven cascade process via
post-volcanic ENSO anomalies. This cascade process has tended historically
to lead to cholera outbreaks in Bengal (i.e. the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta
region of modern India and Bangladesh). To test our hypothesis, we set up a
dataset from strong tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic events that
forced the ENSO system, ENSO indices, and historical data for cholera
outbreaks. Eight volcanic eruptions (≥3.3 W m-2) were accompanied within 2
yr by El Niño events over the past 500 yr. For the 19th-20th century
period, all selected volcanic eruptions were accompanied by major cholera
outbreaks in Bengal during the examined post-volcanic years. For the past
500 yr, the likelihood of the occurrence of major post-volcanic cholera
outbreaks was 75%.


KEY WORDS: ENSO · El Niño · Bengal · Tambora · Samalas · Pinatubo ·
Environmental cascade

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