https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-69

Anticipatory Governance of Climate Engineering
Daniel Barben and Nils Matzner
Subject: Policy, Politics, and Governance, Risk Management and Adaptation,
Management of Technology and Mitigation, GeoengineeringOnline Publication
Date: Jun 2020DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.69

Introduction
New and Emerging Fields of Science and Technology: Approaches to
Anticipatory Governance
>From Parliamentary Technology Assessment to a Reconfiguration of Research
and Innovation
Anticipatory Governance of CE: From Assessment to Responsible Research and
Governance
Articulations of Anticipatory Governance in CE-Related Assessment Reports
Notions of Anticipatory Governance in CE-Related Governance Endeavors
Conclusion and Outlook
References
Related Articles
Climate Change and Migration
The 1.5°C Target, Political Implications, and the Role of BECCS
Climate Change Adaptation
Solar Geoengineering Governance
Summary and Keywords
“Anticipatory governance” has gained recognition as an approach dedicated
to shaping research and development early on, that is, long before
technological applications become available or societal impacts visible. It
combines future-oriented technology assessment, interdisciplinary knowledge
integration, and public engagement. This article places debates about the
anticipatory governance of climate engineering (CE) into the context of
earlier efforts to render the governance of science, emerging technologies,
and society more forward-looking, inclusive, and deliberative. While each
field of science and technology raises specific governance challenges—which
may also differ across time and space—climate engineering seems rather
unique because it relates to what many consider the most significant global
challenge: climate change.

The article discusses how and why CE has become subject to change in the
aftermath of the Paris Agreement of 2015, leading to a more open and more
fragmented situation. In the beginning, CE served as an umbrella term
covering a broad range of approaches which differ in terms of risks,
opportunities, and uncertainties. After Paris, carbon dioxide removal has
been normalized as an approach that expands mitigation options and, thus,
should no longer be attributed to CE, while solar radiation management has
remained marginalized as a CE approach. The 1.5 °C special report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is indicative for this shift.

The governance of CE unfolds in a context where the assessment of climate
change and its impacts provides the context for assessing the potentials
and limitations of CE. Since one cannot clearly predict the future as it is
nonlinear and multiple anticipation may mark a promising way of thinking
about future realities in the contemporary. Due to its indeterminacy the
future may also become subject to “politics of anticipation.” As
uncertainty underlies not only ways of thinking the future but also ways of
acting upon it, anticipatory governance may provide valuable guidance on
how to approach challenging presents and futures in a reflexive way. In
consequence, anticipatory governance is not only aware of risks,
uncertainties, and forms of ignorance but is also ready to adjust and
realign positions, following the changing knowledge and preferences in the
worlds of science, policymaking and politics, or civil society.

This article will discuss notions of anticipatory governance as developed
in various institutional contexts concerned with assessing, funding,
regulating, or conducting research and innovation. It will explore how
notions of anticipatory governance have been transferred to the field of
CE, in attempts at either shaping the course of CE-related research and
innovation or at critically observing various CE-related governance
endeavors by evaluating their capacities in anticipatorily governing
research and technology development. By working in a double epistemic
status, “anticipatory governance” exhibits useful characteristics in both
practical and analytical ways. Considering the particular significance of
climate change, approaches to anticipatory governance of CE need to be
scaled up and reframed, from guiding research and innovation to meeting a
global challenge, from creating capable ensembles in research and
innovation to facilitating societal transformation toward carbon neutrality.

Keywords: anticipatory governance, climate engineering, geoengineering,
technology assessment, knowledge integration, public engagement,
reflexivity, responsibility, science-policy interface

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