Singh, Jyoti, Sandeep Sahany, and Alan Robock, 2020: Can stratospheric
geoengineering alleviate global-warming-induced changes in deciduous
fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India). /Climatic
Change/, doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3.pdf
*Abstract
*Using Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System and Max Planck
Institute Earth System Model simulations, we assess the impact of global
warming and stratospheric geoengineering on deciduous fruit production
in Himachal Pradesh (the second-largest apple-producing state in India).
The impacts have been assessed for the Representative Concentration
Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) global warming scenario, and a corresponding
geoengineered scenario (G3) from the Geoengineering Model
Intercomparison Project, in which stratospheric aerosols are increased
for 50 years from 2020 through 2069 to balance the global warming
radiative forcing, and then aerosol precursor emissions are terminated.
We used the period 2055–2069 (with the largest geoengineering forcing)
and the period 2075–2089 (beginning 5 years into the termination phase)
and evaluated winter chill and growing season heat accumulation. We
found that although stratospheric geoengineering would be able to
suppress the increase in temperature under an RCP4.5 scenario to some
extent during both switch-on and switch-off periods, if the
geoengineering was terminated, the rate of temperature increase would be
higher than RCP4.5. The agroclimatically suitable area is projected to
shift northeastwards (to higher elevations) under RCP4.5 as well as G3
during both periods. However, during the switched on period,
geoengineering would restrict the shift, and areas of Shimla and Mandi
districts (most suitable under the current climate) would not be lost
due to global warming. Even during the switched off period, before the
climate returned to RCP4.5 levels, the above areas would, although to a
lesser extent, have reduced harmful climate effects from global warming.
However, the area of suitable land (the intersection of soil and
agroclimatic suitability) would decrease in both periods for RCP4.5 as
well as G3, because as more high-elevation regions become
agroclimatically suitable, they do not have suitable soils to support
cultivation. Geoengineering could benefit deciduous fruit production by
reducing the intensity of global warming; however, if geoengineering was
terminated abruptly, the rate of change in temperature would be quite
high. This could lead to a rapid change in land suitability and might
result in total crop failure in a shorter period compared to RCP4.5.
--
Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Associate Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University E-mail: [email protected]
14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA ☮ http://twitter.com/AlanRobock
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