https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00240-w

Atmospheric opacity has a nonlinear effect on global crop yields

   - Jonathan Proctor
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00240-w#auth-Jonathan-Proctor>


*Nature Food* <https://www.nature.com/natfood> volume 2, pages166–173(2021)Cite
this article <https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00240-w#citeas>

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Abstract

Agricultural impacts of air pollution, climate change and geoengineering
remain uncertain due to potentially offsetting changes in the quantity and
quality of sunlight. By leveraging year-to-year variation in growing-season
cloud optical thickness, I provide nonlinear empirical estimates of how
increased atmospheric opacity alters sunlight across the Earth’s surface
and how this affects maize and soy yields in the United States, Europe,
Brazil and China. I find that the response of yields to changes in sunlight
from cloud scattering and absorption is consistently concave across crops
and regions. An additional day of optimal cloud cover, relative to a
clear-sky day, increases maize and soy yields by 0.4%. Changes in sunlight
due to changes in clouds have decreased the global average maize and soy
yields by 1% and 0.1% due to air pollution and may further decrease yields
by 1.8% and 0.4% due to climate change.

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