A provocative, in the good sense, exchange.
A couple of comments on the pieces by Pierrehumbert and Mann.
Personally, I feel the arguments against planning for SRM deployment are 
numerous and very strong.  The arguments against research on the subject are 
much weaker.  The SRM topic is being discussed in policy circles.  Not doing 
research will not halt the discussion in policy circles.  Rather, it will tend 
to leave the field open for those who want to hold out SRM as an easy, 
effective alternative to cutting emissions. They can paint a rosy picture 
without having to be concerned about contradictory research findings.
I find no fault with the Pierrehumbert and Mann points about why SRM is not a 
substitute for emission cuts (nor with similar points made by Mann in his more 
nuanced blog on the NRC report 
https://michaelmann.net/content/my-comments-new-national-academy-report-geoengineering).

But taking the recent NRC report to task for proposing an SRM research program 
seems off-base to me.  The NRC report takes pains to state that SRM can never 
be a substitute for emission cuts. It goes further and says the research it 
recommends should “focus on developing policy-relevant knowledge, rather than 
advancing a path for deployment.”  The report recommends SRM be only a  minor 
part of the climate research budget, suggesting $100-200 million total over 
five years.  The report recommends off-ramps, providing for an end to research 
if show-stopper factors emerge.

I would be interested in knowing what specifically in the NRDC report 
Pierrehumbert and Mann disagree with.  I understand the concern that spending 
public money on researching SRM has the potential to “legitimize” the concept 
of SRM.  There is merit to that concern but barring research seems to me to be 
too blunt an instrument to address the concern.  The cost of ignorance is too 
high.

From: Geoengineering <[email protected]> on behalf of Daniele 
Visioni <[email protected]>
Reply-To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
Date: Friday, April 23, 2021 at 11:19 AM
To: Stephen Salter <[email protected]>
Cc: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>, Geoengineering 
<[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [geo] Some say we can ‘solar-engineer’ ourselves out of the 
climate crisis. Don’t buy it Ray Pierrehumbert and Michael Mann

“Having no skin in the game” only means that whoever is not a white male 
emeritus professor (or an NAS member like Michael Mann)
would probably think twice before writing in a public mailing list that anyone 
can read about eugenic proposals that people support for real without a shed of 
irony.
Anybody else in any other more precarious position would probably think “Mmh, 
would this horrible opinion (or joking about this horrible opinion) make me a 
persona non grata everywhere? Maybe I should shut up about it”.

Please remember that your personal definition of what’s “fun” or “irony” might 
not be shared by people who have heard multiple times that their 
location/race/skin color/gender needs to be exterminated for real.
Do you think they would feel welcome in writing in this group (or coming to 
geoengineering meetings) if they suspected we think the solution to solving the 
climate crisis is exterminating them?
Not to mention the fact that there are probably journalists in this group.

I think profs. Mann and Pierrehumbert (and for that matter, Kevin Surprise and 
prof. Jennie Stephens piece in The Hill) opinion is condescending (and pretty 
grand in calling other people paternalistic)
Not to mention conflating researchers with “geoengineering evangelists”, or 
claiming that solar geoengineering suppresses BLM. Both things I find 
incredibly, personally offensive.
The solution is not to shock in the other direction, by saying that if people 
don’t want to discuss SRM or CDR, then we have to resort to neo-malthusian 
bullcrap.
We can do (as a community) way better than that, and keep our head cool.

I’m not going to discuss your scientific results right now. We can have that 
discussion another time, and we most likely agree on the danger of climate 
change. But this is not what is being discussed here.

Daniele


On 23 Apr 2021, at 10:14, SALTER Stephen 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

Daniele

I have had Covid myself and so I agree that it is not all funny.  My intention 
was to shock.

The problem with having only emission reduction by 2050 is means that typhoons, 
floods, droughts, bushfires, sea-level rise, Arctic ice loss and damage to 
coral will all be worse, perhaps much worse than at present.  If you think that 
present conditions are not acceptable you have to conclude that zero emission 
is not low enough.  As well as reducing emissions we will have to remove 
greenhouse gases, probably with help from phytoplankton, and also do direct 
cooling a soon as we can and then ramp it down when emissions are under control.

To help inform opinions, the graph below shows estimates of the amount of salt 
of all sizes thrown up by sea waves plotted against the date of the estimate.

<image001.png>
The small blue circle is the mean at 5.4 gigatonne per year.

The thickening of the black line on the X axis between 1959 and 2020 shows the 
mass of sea salt with the mass of 10 ^ -14 grams chosen for a high Kohler 
nucleation efficiency which we would need for John Latham’s proposal for marine 
cloud brightening.  This gives what we hope is enough to cancel thermal effects 
since preindustrial times.  The size of spray is actually where there is a gap 
between the masses of Aitken and accumulation modes of natural aerosol.

Spraying can be stopped at the click of a mouse and salt will be washed back 
into the sea at the next rainfall.  If we can forecast wind speed and direction 
a few days ahead we can target hot blobs,  El Nino events and the Indian Ocean 
dipole which sets the balance between floods and bush fires between Australia 
and Africa.  Over 20 years we could restore sea level.

The results below from Stjern et al. show the mean of nine climate models for 
temperature and precipitation if we increase the concentration of the right 
size of nuclei in cloudy ocean regions by 50%. Note the blue-green increased 
precipitation in drought-stricken regions.

<image002.png>

Perhaps the people who have blocked research into this possibility will have 
uncomfortable thoughts in future.

I am too old to understand ‘skin in the game’. Please advise.

Stephen


Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3DW
0131 650 5704
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBB6WtH_Ni8<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.youtube.com_watch-3Fv-3DZBB6WtH-5FNi8&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=Wb1BKt5BVWRh_KIYkcGFP1t3sPuFUjEa3xpNo-7qwt0&e=>


From: Daniele Visioni 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>
Sent: Friday, April 23, 2021 2:07 PM
To: SALTER Stephen <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>
Cc: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>; 
[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [geo] Some say we can ‘solar-engineer’ ourselves out of the 
climate crisis. Don’t buy it Ray Pierrehumbert and Michael Mann

This email was sent to you by someone outside the University.
You should only click on links or attachments if you are certain that the email 
is genuine and the content is safe.
For my own mental sanity I will assume this is really cheap sarcasm (and I can 
assure you this is really not funny).

In the same spirit I might suggest that if such a virus was engineered to 
prevent old academics with no skin in the game from venting their uninformed 
opinions on any subject they can think of on international newspapers (or 
elsewhere where they’re not peer reviewed, for that matter), the world would be 
way better off than with any form of population control.

Daniele




On 23 Apr 2021, at 08:53, SALTER Stephen 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

Hi All

The root cause of the root cause of the CO2 problem is the excessive population 
of humans.  The best solution would be genetic engineering of a virus with high 
mortality and transmission efficiency.  Covid 19 is pathetically inadequate.  
We would need to crank up the rate of variant production, improve the width of 
age sensitivity and also make it selective for skin colour, eye shape and 
perhaps even political attitudes.

Stephen

Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3DW
0131 650 5704
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBB6WtH_Ni8<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.youtube.com_watch-3Fv-3DZBB6WtH-5FNi8&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=Wb1BKt5BVWRh_KIYkcGFP1t3sPuFUjEa3xpNo-7qwt0&e=>



From: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> On 
Behalf Of Geoeng Info
Sent: Thursday, April 22, 2021 9:20 PM
To: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
Subject: [geo] Some say we can ‘solar-engineer’ ourselves out of the climate 
crisis. Don’t buy it Ray Pierrehumbert and Michael Mann

This email was sent to you by someone outside the University.
You should only click on links or attachments if you are certain that the email 
is genuine and the content is safe.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/22/climate-crisis-emergency-earth-day<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_commentisfree_2021_apr_22_climate-2Dcrisis-2Demergency-2Dearth-2Dday&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=oxkmroIAwMQmySUOoNLpV6d1s7Wqh6KqTf9a7jWNwV0&e=>

Some say we can ‘solar-engineer’ ourselves out of the climate crisis. Don’t buy 
it
Ray Pierrehumbert and Michael 
Mann<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_profile_michael-2De-2Dmann&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=5FntZ3re4A-1hsr4RdGxOPn5YM9HBcNRjsUPMcKD2J0&e=>


What could go wrong with this idea? Well, quite a lot
<~WRD0000.jpg>
‘The heating effect of carbon dioxide persists for ten thousand years or more, 
absent unproven technologies for scrubbing carbon dioxide out of the 
atmosphere.’ Photograph: Phil Noble/ReutersAs we arrive at Earth Day, there is 
renewed hope in the battle to avert catastrophic climate change. Under newly 
elected president Joe Biden, the US has reasserted global 
leadership<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_us-2Dnews_2021_mar_31_biden-2Dinfrastructure-2Dplan-2Daddress-2Dclimate-2Dcrisis&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=hhFFwdoTVIE1cT94ABmaZDuG8xNBH488jqm0r8Z38Sk&e=>
 in this defining challenge of our time, bringing world leaders together in 
Washington this 
week<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.whitehouse.gov_briefing-2Droom_statements-2Dreleases_2021_03_26_president-2Dbiden-2Dinvites-2D40-2Dworld-2Dleaders-2Dto-2Dleaders-2Dsummit-2Don-2Dclimate_&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=e3ZUzV1-zMFjqAh_oStRgTVgcp95b3_SdCwxt56Nh2k&e=>
 to galvanize the global effort to ramp down carbon emissions in the decade 
ahead.




So there is promise. But there is also great peril looming in the foreground.
Just as the world, at long last, is getting its act together, an ominous 
sun-dimming cloud has appeared on the 
horizon<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__michaelmann.net_content_my-2Dcomments-2Dnew-2Dnational-2Dacademy-2Dreport-2Dgeoengineering&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=1kpHeUeJ8tPDvFVuVI2MZHDhZOLfhs4yz81SM_Zqwwk&e=>,
 threatening to derail these nascent efforts. That cloud comes in the form of 
technologies whose proponents call – somewhat deceptively – “solar 
geoengineering”.

So-called “solar geoengineering” doesn’t actually modify the sun itself. 
Instead, it reduces incoming sunlight by other means, such as putting chemicals 
in the atmosphere that reflect sunlight to space. It addresses a symptom of 
global heating, rather than the root cause, which is human-caused increase in 
the atmosphere’s burden of carbon dioxide.
While it is certainly true that reducing sunlight can cause cooling (we know 
that from massive but episodic volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo in 1991), it 
acts on a very different part of the climate system than carbon dioxide. And 
efforts to offset carbon dioxide-caused warming with sunlight reduction would 
yield<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__journals.sagepub.com_doi_full_10.2968_064002006&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=fu3bPPOxQ-w5u7iDwCG1VV3gArTAU3_0f3QjarNFeq8&e=>
 a very different climate, perhaps one unlike any seen before in Earth’s 
history, with massive shifts in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns 
and possible worsening of droughts.
What could possibly go 
wrong<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__ncse.ngo_preview-2Dmadhouse-2Deffect&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=DsJ-CMrfyS6AGmtZANaUHxQDwvCpfuooS5g0kPuWjxg&e=>?
 Elizabeth Kolbert’s book Under a White 
Sky<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_books_2021_mar_26_under-2Da-2Dwhite-2Dsky-2Dby-2Delizabeth-2Dkolbert-2Dreview-2Dthe-2Dpath-2Dto-2Dcatastrophe&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=o7T3PFfvZrmYr2ykggPQXKusZN9ukN-A3zStmXfOsBY&e=>
 documents case after case where supposedly benign environmental interventions 
have had unintended consequences requiring layer after layer of escalating 
further technological interventions to avert disaster. When the impacts are 
local, as in Australia’s struggle to deal with consequences of deliberate 
introduction of the cane toad, the spread of catastrophe can be contained (so 
far, at least). But what happens when the unintended consequences afflict the 
entire planet?

Then there is the mismatch of time scales. The heating effect of carbon dioxide 
persists for 10,000 years or more, absent unproven technologies for scrubbing 
carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. In contrast, the sun-dimming particles in 
question drop out in a year or less, meaning that if you come to rely on 
geoengineering for survival, you need to keep it up essentially forever. Think 
of it as climate methadone.

And if we are ever forced to stop, we are hit with dangerous withdrawal 
symptoms – a catastrophic “termination shock” wherein a century of pent-up 
global heating emerges within a decade. Some proponents insist we can always 
stop if we don’t like the result. Well yes, we can stop. Just like if you’re 
being kept alive by a ventilator with no hope of a cure, you can turn it off – 
and suffer the consequences.
Geoengineering 
evangelists<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_environment_2021_feb_08_solar-2Dgeoengineering-2Dtest-2Dflight-2Dplan-2Dunder-2Dfire-2Dover-2Denvironmental-2Dconcerns-2Daoe&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=FKyG5Jl1g4JfrqEiPQuCqGL3UssPn5Xjfsa63-5gPQ4&e=>
 at Harvard have pushed for expanded consideration of such technology; as panic 
over the climate crisis has grown, so too has support for perilous 
geoengineering schemes spread well beyond Cambridge, Massachusetts. And the 
lines between basic theoretical research (which is worthwhile – climate model 
experiments, for example, have 
revealed<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__physicsworld.com_a_solar-2Dgeoengineering-2Dcould-2Dcause-2Dunwanted-2Dchanges-2Din-2Dclimate-2Dnew-2Dmodelling-2Dsuggests_&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=R3TMYRuv3C1KljTJ7dNFCjCyRgIEhsZEALtWVqGlSyQ&e=>
 the potential perils) on the one hand, and field testing and 
implementation<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__link.springer.com_article_10.1007_s10584-2D020-2D02740-2D3&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=TkV_n06VFj8Fi_YJ8HwNCQDyi23k6n7ZEVokkvaH9tc&e=>
 on the other, have increasingly been blurred.
Solar geoengineering has been 
cited<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.rollingstone.com_politics_politics-2Dnews_geoengineering-2Dhouse-2Ddemocrats-2Dclimate-2Dplan-2D2020-2D1023376_&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=joX8M1wayhNT6Tf7QTRn62AEL3LG5hKoCAD2GKX4CyA&e=>
 in the Democratic Climate Action Plan. MIT’s Maria Zuber, incoming co-chair of 
Biden’s president’s council of advisers on science and technology (PCAST) is on 
record as 
favoring<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__issues.org_solar-2Dradiation-2Dmitigation-2Dresearch_&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=6bo0XHRsAJ69Zs6q0vCjNs0VBAgUe14kdx_EKp_obpI&e=>
 an expanded federal geoengineering research program. And now the other shoe 
has dropped – the US National Research Council has recently released a report 
going well 
beyond<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__michaelmann.net_content_my-2Dcomments-2Dnew-2Dnational-2Dacademy-2Dreport-2Dgeoengineering&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=1kpHeUeJ8tPDvFVuVI2MZHDhZOLfhs4yz81SM_Zqwwk&e=>
 the very cautious, tentative recommendations for continued research in the 
2015 NRC 
report<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nap.edu_catalog_18988_climate-2Dintervention-2Dreflecting-2Dsunlight-2Dto-2Dcool-2Dearth&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=tuRUo_Vg6gpj-An_icv2Hn7LMKvWqcO3R6DN57H1lSs&e=>
 one of us (Pierrehumbert) co-authored.
The new 
report<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nap.edu_catalog_25762_reflecting-2Dsunlight-2Drecommendations-2Dfor-2Dsolar-2Dgeoengineering-2Dresearch-2Dand-2Dresearch-2Dgovernance&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=WFuCXnXBzWRDeGo44F_VFqnCcatQSFmmSd-9YCKBFWk&e=>
 pushes for a massive $200m five-year funding program. The growing support is 
based on a fundamental misconception, captured in the NRC report’s 
justification statement: that we likely won’t achieve the necessary 
decarbonization of our economy in time to avoid massive climate damages, so 
this technology might be needed.
Such “Plan B” framing is the worst possible justification for developing solar 
geoengineering technology. It is laden in moral hazard – providing, as it does, 
an excuse for fossil fuel interests and their advocates to continue with 
business as usual. Why reduce carbon pollution if there is a cheap workaround? 
In The New Climate 
War,<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__scribepublications.com.au_books-2Dauthors_books_the-2Dnew-2Dclimate-2Dwar&d=DwMFaQ&c=AkZ8ntcCwZnm3Hk87-RMDw&r=rLi7_27j-LnJpYKqycRu19O0vsMQcHs-yrSfSMLtlNo&m=rEyTvRBFqyAkFKi61He1ZXrTwNbbUtbkvN-VdRPWqvc&s=Q2wxAOQThFXv7ooR3SgHBsnO-Nr8aVsChnhLABwamY4&e=>
 one of us (Mann) argues that geoengineering advocacy is indeed one of the key 
delay tactics used by polluters.
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