https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-021-09958-1
Potential implications of solar radiation modification for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals Matthias Honegger, Axel Michaelowa & Jiahua Pan Abstract Solar radiation modification, particularly stratospheric aerosol injection, holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change on sustainable development, yet could itself generate negative impacts and is subject to intense scholarly debate based on relatively little evidence. Based on expert elicitation involving over 30 individuals with backgrounds across the domains of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we identify a broad range of potential implications of solar radiation modification for the SDGs. Depending on design and application scenarios, applications could potentially assist in the pursuit of several of the goals by limiting temperature rise and limiting acceleration in atmospheric water cycles as well as extreme weather events. However, by adding to particulates, introducing an additional layer of complexity and potential for conflict in global governance, as well as otherwise altering planetary environments, they might also detract from the pursuit of SDGs and introduce novel risks. The overall impact of solar radiation modification on sustainable development is currently highly uncertain and dependent on climate change mitigation pathways and governance. We identify key areas for further transdisciplinary research the pursuit of which might reduce some uncertainty and help inform emerging governance processes. Conclusions While this review presents some early insights into potential benefits and negative impacts of deploying SRM technologies, focusing on SAI, it is important to note that decisions both for or against pursuing research or deployment of such technologies will also have significant implications for delivery of the SDGs to a greater or lesser extent as climate change impacts progress. Any kind of cost–benefit analysis to inform considerations of whether or not to deploy such technologies in the future will require a considerably more detailed, transdisciplinary assessment of implications for SDG delivery. Our review highlights the interconnections between potential effects of SRM application intended to limit climate change-related damages, and the multiplicity of objectives embedded in the SDGs. While finding numerous indications of potential effects — positive and negative — we also encounter significant barriers to building a strong foundation of understanding on which later decision making can be built. Climate change and its effects are frequently studied in models and discussion of SRM, especially SAI, is rooted in earth system modelling, which is best suited to gain understanding of climate change across physical parameters. Second-order implications from various climate states are often modelled in climate impact models, whereby physical variables are translated into economic costs and benefits. SRM cost–benefit could in principle also be modelled in such a way. However, such simplification misses fundamental interrelations between physical and non-physical impact pathways: To further explore these, more transdisciplinary and geographically diverse research is required on the interconnections between SRM and sustainable development. Development of common assessment principles or metrics spanning the SDG dimensions might also allow further exploration of the more indirect interrelations, including by quantitative analysis of potential risks and benefits of SRM to avoid under- or over-estimating climate and sustainable development impacts. In light of controversy on the role of science itself in the generation of societally relevant knowledge, also more social science and humanities research may be needed, including critical reflection on the role of science and technology in the context of achieving the SDGs. In the longer term, more integrated policy impact assessments might be required to explore intricacies of potential policy designs seeking to mobilize, regulate, monitor, and report on SRM, and their potential implications for delivery of the SDGs, particularly for international cooperation and partnerships for the goals. In the near term, governance of research on SRM also requires more attention in light of the necessity to ensure research can progress — in a way that advances societal objectives and public interests of present and future generations. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAKSzgpbtL%3DSGUksEreMCyMjVCcEAc-0%3D4-nCB8DbX63sCFJOLQ%40mail.gmail.com.
