https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328721001142

*Solar Geoengineering Governance: Insights from a Scenario Exercise*

Edward A. Parson, Jesse L. Reynolds

*Abstract*
This paper concludes the collection on an extended scenario exercise that
examined governance challenges and potential responses for solar
geoengineering. It synthesizes the experiences of eight participant groups
who worked with four scenarios of unauthorized use of solar geoengineering.
It draws both substantive insights about solar geoengineering risks and
governance and methodological insights for the use of scenario exercises to
explore this issue, as well as identifying major uncertainties and
questions raised by the exercise. Prominent themes include the need for
strategic sequencing of actions by those initiating and responding to solar
geoengineering challenges; the nature and foundations of potential
opposition; the widespread interest in normalizing or domesticating a
disruptive intervention after the fact; the importance of embedding solar
geoengineering actions in the broader context of climate policy and the
difficulty of doing so given their disruptive character; and the importance
and likely structure of negotiations to move from initial disruptive
action, whatever its initiators and form, to broaden participation and
embed solar geoengineering decisions in a broadly legitimate multilateral
governance structure. In the closing section, we propose directions for
further scenario-based explorations of solar geoengineering and its
governance challenges.

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