https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328721001257

The middle powers roar: Exploring a minilateral solar geoengineering
deployment scenario

Zachary Dove, Joshua Horton, Katharine Ricke

Abstract

The prospect of solar geoengineering, which would entail reflecting a small
fraction of incoming sunlight back to space to cool the planet, has been
slowly but steadily rising on the climate policy agenda. Early research
suggests that solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate
risks, but its development and potential use would be accompanied by an
array of ecological and sociopolitical risks and governance challenges.
Here we reflect on our participation in a solar geoengineering governance
scenario exercise conducted at the 2019 International Summer School on
Geoengineering Governance. In the scenario with which we engaged, a group
of ‘middle powers’ intend to force the issue of solar geoengineering onto
the international agenda after decades of deadlock and in the face of
intensifying climate impacts. As participants in this exercise, we
confronted a range of problems and issues we judged likely to arise. In
this article, we discuss a number of these, including the manner in which
political considerations are likely to influence the physical and technical
aspects of deployment schemes, as well as ways in which emergency framing
may undermine political legitimacy. These and other aspects of possible
future deployment of solar geoengineering warrant additional targeted
scenario analysis.

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