https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007821500081

OPTIMAL CLIMATE POLICY IN 3D: MITIGATION, CARBON REMOVAL, AND SOLAR
GEOENGINEERING


MARIIA BELAIA, JUAN B. MORENO-CRUZ and DAVID W. KEITH

*Abstract*

We introduce solar geoengineering (SG) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
into an integrated assessment model to analyze the trade-offs between
mitigation, SG, and CDR. We propose a novel empirical parameterization of
SG that disentangles its efficacy, calibrated with climate model results,
from its direct impacts. We use a simple parameterization of CDR that
decouples it from the scale of baseline emissions. We find that (a) SG
optimally delays mitigation and lowers the use of CDR, which is distinct
from moral hazard; (b) SG is deployed prior to CDR while CDR drives the
phasing out of SG in the far future; (c) SG deployment in the short term is
relatively independent of discounting and of the long-term trade-off
between SG and CDR over time; (d) small amounts of SG sharply reduce the
cost of meeting a 2∘2°C target and the costs of climate change, even with a
conservative calibration for the efficacy of SG.

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