https://academic.oup.com/oocc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgab010/6370712

Solar Geoengineering Governance: A Dynamic Framework of Farsighted
Coalition Formation

Daniel Heyen, Jere Lehtomaa

*Abstract*
Climate interventions with solar geoengineering could reduce climate
damages if deployed in a globally coordinated regime. In the absence of
such a regime, however, strategic incentives of single actors might result
in detrimental outcomes. A well-known concern is that a "free-driver"
(Weitzman 2015), the country with the strongest preference for cooling,
might unilaterally set the global thermostat to its preferred level, thus
imposing damages on others. Governance structures, i.e. more or less formal
institutional arrangements between countries, could steer the decentralized
geoengineering deployment towards the preferable global outcome. In this
paper, we show that the coalition formation literature (an excellent
summary is Ray & Vohra 2015) can make a valuable contribution to assessing
the relative merit of different governance schemes. An important feature of
the coalition formation literature is the sophisticated dynamic structure.
A country pondering whether to leave a coalition anticipates that its
departure could spark another process of disintegration among the remaining
members of that coalition, which in turn may affect the assessment of
whether leaving the coalition is worthwhile in the first place. This
dynamic structure thus enables a more realistic picture of what coalitions
are likely to form and remain stable. A second important feature of
coalition formation models is wide control over the "rules of the game",
for instance, which agents need to consent to a transition from one
coalitional arrangement to another. This control over the institutional
setting allows consistently comparing and discussing various international
governance arrangements.

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