https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.763983

La Plata Basin Hydroclimate Response to Solar Radiation Modification With
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Inés Camilloni, Natalia Montroull, Carla Gulizia and Ramiro I. Saurral


*Abstract*
This study analyses the La Plata Basin (LPB) hydroclimate response to Solar
Radiation Modification (SRM) with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) in
terms of changes in mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and river flows
simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). The GLENS data
used consists of three members simulations of a single model under the high
anthropogenic emission scenario RCP8.5 with and without sulfur injection in
the tropical stratosphere. The response of such an intervention is compared
to a historical period (1980–2010) and to projections under the RCP8.5
scenario for two time slices: 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. The analysis of
changes in extreme temperature and precipitation focuses on a subset of
climate indices from the Expert Team of Climate Change Detection and
Indices (ETCCDI). To determine the possible effects of SRM in the LPB water
cycle, we use the distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)
hydrologic model in combination with daily extreme temperature and
precipitation outputs from GLENS. Systematic errors in both fields were
corrected by the application of a statistical bias correction method.
Results show robust impacts on the water cycle of the LPB due to SRM
implementation, particularly associated with increased precipitation over
the northern part of the region and a general reduced warming compared to
the RCP8.5 scenario. These variations would lead to regional-dependent
responses in the river flows, mostly related to reductions in the severity
of the extremely low flow conditions. Additionally, under the SRM scenario
a reduction in extreme precipitation and a cooling effect on extreme
temperatures could be expected over the LPB.

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