Thank you John. After a more careful reread it appears that (if I understand your comment) you’re correct that the study links “multidecadal” variability of Arctic Amplification (AA) to sea ice, and not sea ice directly to extreme climate events (as my understanding is also that current climate models are not able to capture “intra -multidecadal” impacts of AA on extreme climate very well). But the second part of this link from AA to the extreme climate effects that we are witnessing is alluded to in the paper in the quote from lead author Aiguo Dai:
“This is because sea surface anomalies in the North Atlantic and affect atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe, North America, West Africa and South America, leading to temperature and precipitation changes in these regions” Best, Ron Sent from my iPhone > On May 1, 2022, at 9:13 AM, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Hi Ron, > > My hopes were raised by the conclusions of this paper, but I am disappointed > by its content. The sea ice is indeed critical to weather extremes, but it > is through driving Arctic Amplification. AA reduces the Arctic-tropics > temperature gradient, disrupting jet stream behaviour and making it tend to > get stuck in places for weeks, thus amplifying hot or wet weather to create > severe droughts or floods respectively, as we witnessed so dramatically last > year in US and China respectively. This behaviour is not captured in models, > as noted by Michael Mann no less. But it is one of several reasons why the > Arctic needs to be refrozen as quickly as possible, another being sea level > rise from land ice meltdown. > > Cheers, John > > > >> On Fri, Apr 29, 2022 at 6:05 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: >> Thanks for sharing Renaud! This study appears to systematically validate >> what many of us have been saying. If not quickly slowed and reversed, the >> massive decline and imminent loss of Arctic sea ice (first Sept “Blue >> Ocean” event potentially as soon as 2027 >> https://www.cpegonline.org/post/arctic-sea-ice-traige-carbon-cycle-restoration-and-a-renewable-energy-and-materials-economy >> ) has and will substantially escalate extreme climate events and increase >> the risk of crossing of other tipping points. I’m forwarding to CDR groups >> as well as the study appears to model this effect with varying levels of >> GHG emissions and reduction. >> >> Ron Baiman >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> Begin forwarded message: >> >>> From: Renaud de RICHTER <[email protected]> >>> Date: April 29, 2022 at 12:15:23 AM CDT >>> To: Peter Wadhams <[email protected]>, John Nissen >>> <[email protected]>, Ron Baiman <[email protected]>, Doug Grandt >>> <[email protected]> >>> Subject: Diminishing Arctic sea ice has lasting impacts on global climate >>> >>> >>> https://phys.org/news/2022-04-diminishing-arctic-sea-ice-impacts.html >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Healthy Planet Action Coalition" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/22AB9688-1D32-46F6-9371-83A5A7D54F09%40gmail.com. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/B9781950-70F8-4235-B391-00EF439FD119%40gmail.com.
