When thinking about fantasies, it's important to think about probabilities.
About 10 years ago I calculated the probability of making the necessary cuts in CO2 emissions using game theory and the concept of interconnected games. This works out at 6E-63 for any given year. To persist, for n years, then it is (6E-63)^n. Thus for an agreement to hold for any reasonable time, then the probability of success is less than finding a single atom from all the atoms that make the universe. I am obviously delighted that the "Majority of Americans continue to favor reducing greenhouse gas emissions, " but while the world has one hot war and multiple Cold Wars ongoing there will be no cuts in emissions, only increases. The remaining question is how much. The Guardian has a disturbing article today that validates this prognosis and my 10 year old calculations, see https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium . The brutal reality is that it is SRM or nothing. We urgently need to understand if an SRM solution can be deployed quicker than the planet will be destroyed. Regards, Kevin On Thu, 12 May 2022, 00:54 'Jessica Gurevitch' via geoengineering, < [email protected]> wrote: > I would be surprised if anyone on this list wouldn’t prefer emission > reductions. While we’re fantasizing, why not prefer that we got emissions > to zero 50 years ago? I prefer that! But whether or not there would be an > overshoot (I call it a lag effect) if we immediately stopped putting GHGs > into the atmosphere….we are clearly not doing that. So it’s sort of like > saying, how many people would prefer having a high income without working? > Most people probably would prefer it. I’m not sure it’s the right question. > > Sent from my iPhone > > On May 11, 2022, at 1:17 PM, Phil M <[email protected]> wrote: > > Apparently they haven't been told that this will not save them... > > On Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:39:16 PM UTC+2 Alan Robock wrote: > >> >> https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/05/10/emission-reduction-remains-publics-preferred-approach-to-climate-change/ >> >> *Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change* >> by Barry G. Rabe and Christopher Borick >> >> "Americans continue to favor reducing greenhouse gas emissions as their >> preferred approach for staving off the worst impacts of climate change, >> according to new public opinion findings. The public remains considerably >> more skeptical of any pivot from mitigation toward climate policy that >> prioritizes adaptation, use of geoengineering that releases particles into >> the atmosphere in attempting to deter warming, or subterranean carbon >> storage. These findings emerge from the Winter 2022 National Surveys on >> Energy and Environment (NSEE). ..." >> -- >> >> Alan Robock >> >> Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor >> Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751 >> <(848)%20932-5751> >> Rutgers University E-mail: >> [email protected] >> 14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock >> New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 ☮ https://twitter.com/AlanRobock >> >> [image: Signature] >> >> >> -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/d5ea9102-9a10-4ba1-a62a-f84588fc9107n%40googlegroups.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/d5ea9102-9a10-4ba1-a62a-f84588fc9107n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/B37FA2E0-CFF1-48E9-8595-10B316DC892F%40stonybrook.edu > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/B37FA2E0-CFF1-48E9-8595-10B316DC892F%40stonybrook.edu?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAE%3DUiezVDnTtCQyo2Ckmom-WnOdrxRsY7q4LVPtrAxgtrNEWfQ%40mail.gmail.com.
