https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2022.0053

The changing nature of Earth's reflected sunlight
Graeme L. Stephens, Maria Z. Hakuba, Seiji Kato, Andrew Gettleman,
Jean-Louis Dufresne, Timothy Andrews, Jason N. S. Cole, Ulrika Willem and
Thorsten Mauritsen
Published:27 July 2022https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2022.0053
Review history
Abstract
The increased rate of sea-level rise suggests that Earth's energy imbalance
is also increasing over time. This study assesses whether 20 years of
direct observations of this energy imbalance from Earth-orbiting satellites
support the existence of a real trend in this imbalance and the components
of it and finds. Changes to the imbalance observed are found to be
consistent across multiple sources of observations. The majority of recent
studies now clearly point to this energy imbalance being positive, while
forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, being
amplified significantly by decreases to the amount of sunlight reflected by
Earth to space. Here, we show that the global changes observed appear
largely from reductions in the amount of sunlight scattered by Earth's
atmosphere. These reductions, in turn, are found to be almost equally split
between reduced reflection from the cloudy and clear regions of the
atmosphere, with the latter being suggestive of reduced scattering by
aerosol particles over the observational period. Climate models, however,
show an almost exclusive response from clouds, and a slightly exaggerated
darkening of the surface. Thus, models that match the global shortwave
change do so for the wrong reasons.

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