[geo] Re: [CDR] RE: A Climate Model: Net Zero Heating

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 10:19:13 -0700 

Hi Paul
Long wave and short wave radiation.  LWR is (mainly) heat that is prevented by greenhouse gases (GHGs) from escaping to outer space.  SWR is (mainly) light.  Insolation is SWR from the sun that is converted to heat when it strikes stuff (mostly solid surfaces and oceans) and some of it is reflected back to outer space by reflective surfaces and particles e.g. snow and ice covered surfaces and and certain aerosols in the atmosphere. 


A LWR only policy seeks to stabilise the climate by reducing atmospheric 
GHGs, thereby allowing more heat to escape.  Adding SWR policies, cools 
the planet directly and faster by reducing the amount of heat generated 
by insolation.


Regards

Robert


On 17/03/2023 16:41, Douglas Grandt wrote:

Paul,

Perplexed, I searched my emails for LWR and SWR, which revealed only this:

Begin forwarded message:



*From: *Robert Chris
*Date: *February 15, 2023 at 12:03:57 PM EST
*To: *Wil Burns, Jim Fleming, [email protected]

*Cc: *Greg Rau, Ken Caldeira, [email protected], 
geoengineering

*Subject: Re: [geo] RE: [CDR] Tiresome nomenclature squabbles*


Might there be some merit in drawing a distinction between methods 
that affect *short-wave radiation* and those that affect *long-wave 
radiation* (not necessarily using the word 'radiation')?  This 
distinction is important because while *LWR* methods are essential in 
the medium to long-term and remain urgent to scale because of their 
lengthy climate response time, they are now unlikely to be capable of 
keeping surface temperature below tipping point thresholds.  For that 
only *SWR* methods can work.  The difference between approaches 
capable of delivering climate stability and those that will keep us 
in the game long enough to enjoy that future climate stability, is 
perhaps one that needs emphasising at every opportunity.



Trying to find a single term that unambiguously and universally 
describes the nature of the technology, its climatic impact, and its 
controllability and risk profile across the multiple dimensions of 
the intractably complex climate system (including the biosphere and 
human society), seems to me to be asking rather a lot of a couple of 
words.



It might also be worth noting that we are having this debate in 
English but most of the world don't speak English.  Are we expecting 
to take control of this usage in every language?



CDR, SRM, intervention, management and so on, all these words and 
terms have become imbued with nuanced, imprecise and variable 
 meanings.  Those contributing to this thread have comprehensively 
demonstrated that there is no single answer to what is the best 
terminology - if this group of luminaries haven't  been able to come 
up with it, then no one will.  If there is perceived to be such 
critical sensitivity in how we communicate ideas focused on averting 
a climate crisis, perhaps we should consider those sensitivities in 
more depth.  From that would likely emerge a language that offers 
greater power and flexibility.


Regards

Robert




Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)


On Mar 17, 2023, at 11:47 AM, Anderson, Paul <[email protected]> wrote:




Sorry, I missed something.   What are LWR and SWR?  Dangerous to 
guess and then be incorrect.


Thanks in advance.

Paul

Doc / Dr TLUD / Paul S. Anderson, PhD


Email: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> Skype:   
paultlud     Mobile & WhatsApp: 309-531-4434



Website: https://woodgas.com <https://woodgas.com/> see Resources 
page for 2023 /“Roadmap for Climate Intervention with Biochar”/ and 
2020 white paper, 2) RoCC kilns, and 3) TLUD stove technology.



*From:* [email protected] 
<[email protected]> *On Behalf Of 
*Robert Chris

*Sent:* Friday, March 17, 2023 10:38 AM
*To:* Dan Galpern <[email protected]>; [email protected]

*Cc:* Greg Rau <[email protected]>; Planetary Restoration 
<[email protected]>; NOAC 
<[email protected]>; healthy-planet-action-coalition 
<[email protected]>; geoengineering 
<[email protected]>; Carbon Dioxide Removal 
<[email protected]>; Healthy Climate Alliance 
<[email protected]>

*Subject:* Re: [CDR] RE: A Climate Model: Net Zero Heating


        


This message originated from outside of the Illinois State University 
email system. Learn why this is important 
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Hi Dan


The central point is not whether IPCC ARs 1-6 have discussed the 
current state of the albedo enhancement (AE/SRM) literature but 
rather that they have failed to address the emerging (some would say 
long since emerged) evidence indicating that a LWR only policy will 
not deliver the UNFCCC's 'ultimate objective' of preventing dangerous 
human intervention in the climate.  This evidence is well presented, 
for example, in Jim Hansen et al's recent /Warming in the Pipeline. / 
The AR6 treatment is not a risk/risk review - it considers the risks 
and uncertainties surrounding the prospective implementation of AE, 
but not the risks and uncertainties of not implementing AE and 
sticking with a LWR-only policy regime.



For the avoidance of doubt, and because the CDR Google group is 
included in this distribution, I stress that AE is not an alternative 
to a LWR focussed policy regime but absolutely in addition to it.  
Reduction of atmospheric CO2e is essential for the medium to 
long-term stabilisation of the climate but a SWR cooling package is 
essential in the short-term to create the environmental context for 
the effective delivery of the LWR cooling to work.  This is both/and, 
not either/or.



Our problem is that AE is playing catch up because it has been 
assumed to be unnecessary and/or too risky, and  the reliance placed 
on CO2e reduction has not been matched by timely and effective 
action.  Restoring balance will, in the short term, inevitably 
increase attention on AE.


Regards

Robert

On 17/03/2023 01:43, Dan Galpern wrote:

    I do not know where you find this "current IPCC consensus that
    sees no role for albedo enhancement in climate policy."

    There is discussion about the state of knowledge re albedo
    questions in the 6th Assessment Report,

    including with respect to SRM so that, for instance, in the AR6
    WGIII report, at p. 340:

    "In the context of mitigation pathways, only a  few studies have
    examined solar radiation modification (SRM), typically focusing on
    Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (Arinoa et al. 2016; Emmerling and
    Tavoni 2018a,b; Heutel et al. 2018; Helwegen et al. 2019; Rickels
    et al. 2020; Belaia et al. 2021). These studies find that substantial
    mitigation is required to limit warming to a given level, even if SRM
    is available (Moreno-Cruz and Smulders 2017; Emmerling and Tavoni
    2018b; Belaia et al. 2021). SRM may reduce some climate impacts,
    reduce peak temperatures, lower mitigation costs, and extend the
    time available to achieve mitigation; however, SRM does not address
    ocean acidification and may involve risks to crop yields, economies,
    human health, or ecosystems (AR6 WGII Chapter 16; AR6 WGI TS and
    Chapter 5; SR1.5 SPM; and Cross-Working Group Box 4 in Chapter 14
    of this report). There are also significant uncertainties surrounding
    SRM, including uncertainties on the costs and risks, which can
    substantially alter the amount of SRM used in modelled pathways
    (Tavoni et al. 2017; Heutel et al. 2018; IPCC 2018; Helwegen
    et al. 2019; NASEM 2021). Furthermore, the degree of international
    cooperation can influence the amount of SRM deployed in scenarios,
    with uncoordinated action resulting in larger SRM deployment and
    consequently larger risks/impacts from SRM (Emmerling and Tavoni
    2018a). Bridging research and governance involves consideration
    of the full range of societal choices and ramifications (Sugiyama
    et al. 2018). More information on SRM, including the caveats, risks,
    uncertainties, and governance issues is found in AR6 WGI Chapter 4;
    AR6 WGIII Chapter 14; and Cross-Working Group Box 4 in Chapter 14
    of this report."

    And that Cross-Working Group Box 4 in Chapter 14 of the WGIII
    report goes on for 5 pages discussing

    SRM schemes, use in mitigation scenarios, risks and risk
    reduction, ethics, and governance.

    [Box contained with/in SRM discussion at 1488-1494.]

    The IPCC's treatment of SRM methods and governance issues seems
    to me to be steady and cautious,

    but no more so than its treatment of CDR methods and governance.

    On Thu, Mar 16, 2023 at 5:07 PM <[email protected]> wrote:

        Thanks Greg.

        The relevance of the net zero heating model to CDR is about
        policy.  IPCC wrongly assumes that action to remove carbon
        warming forcing could be enough to stabilise the climate. 
        The exclusion of albedo measures from serious COP discussion
        has created a false over-estimation of the potential
        contribution of CDR and emission reduction to the overall
        climate priority agenda.  Efforts into CDR are misplaced
        where they support the current IPCC consensus that sees no
        role for albedo enhancement in climate policy.  The fact that
        even massive CDR cannot be enough to prevent dangerous
        tipping points ought to be a primary concern for CDR
        advocates.  The current policy goal of net zero emissions
        lacks a critical engineering path in view of the swamping
        problem of accelerating feedbacks.  So my call to the CDR
        community is to join in challenging the IPCC consensus that
        action on carbon is the only climate priority, and instead
        help to develop an integrated policy that recognises the
        immediate need for direct climate cooling.  Reversing
        acidification is essential, but it can’t be used as an excuse
        to avoid the need for a policy that integrates action on
        carbon with action to brighten the planet.

        Regards

        Robert Tulip

        *From:* Greg Rau <[email protected]>
        *Sent:* Friday, 17 March 2023 8:21 AM
        *To:* [email protected]
        *Cc:* Planetary Restoration
        <[email protected]>; NOAC
        <[email protected]>;
        healthy-planet-action-coalition
        <[email protected]>;
        geoengineering <[email protected]>; Carbon
        Dioxide Removal <[email protected]>;
        Healthy Climate Alliance
        <[email protected]>
        *Subject:* Re: [CDR] RE: A Climate Model: Net Zero Heating

        Robert,

        Are you then suggesting that efforts into CDR are misplaced?
        True, CDR isn't going to singlehandedly solve the climate
        problem, but it and emissions reduction are the only things
        we've got to hasten the solution to excess CO2. This includes
        ending ocean acidification that SRM presumably can't touch. I
        can't speak for the entire CDR list, but many of us do
        support SRM research, a theme ably covered by the other lists
        you posted to but not the CDR list.

        Regards,

        Greg

        Moderator

        On Wed, Mar 15, 2023 at 11:01 AM <[email protected]> wrote:

            The policy context for carbon dioxide removal includes
            its effect on radiative forcing.  RF management is
            critical to the goal of a stable and liveable climate. 
            CDR can only have climate effect when integrated into a
            program of albedo enhancement to cut radiative forcing.

            The need to focus on RF is unpalatable for CDR advocates
            who prefer to ignore the problems of global warming.  And
            yet it seems inescapable that failure to enhance albedo
            will trigger tipping points that will swamp potential
            climate benefits of CDR.

            A ten foot levee is no good against a twenty foot flood. 
            But that is the result of a climate policy fixated on
            carbon rather than albedo.

            RT

            *From:* Michael Hayes <[email protected]>
            *Sent:* Wednesday, 15 March 2023 12:03 PM
            *To:* [email protected]
            *Cc:* Planetary Restoration
            <[email protected]>; NOAC
            <[email protected]>;
            healthy-planet-action-coalition
            <[email protected]>;
            geoengineering <[email protected]>; Carbon
            Dioxide Removal <[email protected]>;
            Healthy Climate Alliance
            <[email protected]>
            *Subject:* Re: [prag] Re: [CDR] A Climate Model: Net Zero
            Heating

            Suggest whatever you wish, I'll object to any non CDR
            post being posted in the CDR list.

            On Tue, Mar 14, 2023, 2:56 PM <[email protected]> wrote:

                With all due respect Michael Hayes, your failure to
                see the relevance to CDR ignores the global warming
                context of CDR.

                The thread quantifies the planetary heating and
                cooling balance based on published research
                documenting factors to date. It shows the total
                contribution needed from carbon dioxide removal and
                other greenhouse gas removal as well as cooling
                factors to achieve net zero heating.   It also
                explains prioritisation, showing that CDR has to
                operate over a slower time frame than albedo
                enhancement. I expect that is what you object to, but
                it is a simple scientific observation.

                To quantify Net Zero Heating is directly relevant to
                CDR by placing CDR within the context of total
                radiative forcing.  That is why I posted it to the
                CDR Group.

                Are you a moderator at the CDR Group?  If not, can I
                suggest you leave list moderation to the moderators?

                Robert Tulip

                *From:* [email protected]
                <[email protected]> *On Behalf
                Of *Michael Hayes
                *Sent:* Wednesday, 15 March 2023 7:46 AM
                *To:* [email protected]
                *Cc:* Planetary Restoration
                <[email protected]>; NOAC
                <[email protected]>;
                healthy-planet-action-coalition
                <[email protected]>;
                geoengineering <[email protected]>;
                Carbon Dioxide Removal
                <[email protected]>; Healthy
                Climate Alliance
                <[email protected]>
                *Subject:* [prag] Re: [CDR] A Climate Model: Net Zero
                Heating

                There is nothing within this thread that is addressed
                directly to any aspect of the extensive list of STEM,
                policy, and/or socioeconomics level issues within the
                recognized CDR space.

                On Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 8:37 PM <[email protected]> wrote:

                    Stabilising the climate requires equality of
                    positive and negative radiative forcing to
                    achieve net zero heating.

                    Here is a simple model of how climate stability
                    could be achieved over coming decades and
                    centuries using albedo enhancement and greenhouse
                    gas removal.

                    Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud
                    Brightening and other cooling methods can balance
                    CO2 and CH4 and other warming factors.

                    The left half of the diagram is from /An
                    Imperative To Monitor Earth’s Energy Imbalance/,
                    published in 2016 in Nature Climate Change.

                    The right half extrapolates radiative forcing to
                    achieve and sustain net zero heating from 2060.
                      The bands are roughly drawn.

                    It is possible that the main cooling work shown
                    as SAI could be partly replaced by other methods.

                    Regards

                    Robert Tulip


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