https://www.rff.org/publications/working-papers/impact-of-solar-geoengineering-on-temperature-attributable-mortality/

*Date*

*May 30, 2023*

*Authors*

Anthony Harding, David Keith, Wenchang Yang, and Gabriel Vecchi

*Publication*
Working Paper
Abstract

Temperature-attributable mortality is a major risk of climate change. We
analyze the capacity of solar geoengineering (SG) to reduce this risk and
compare it to the impact of equivalent cooling from CO2 emissions
reductions. We use the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model to
simulate climate response to SG. Using empirical estimates of the
historical relationship between temperature and mortality from Carleton et
al. (2022), we project global and regional temperature-attributable
mortality, find that SG reduces it globally, and provide evidence that this
impact is larger than for equivalent cooling from emissions reductions. At
a regional scale, SG moderates the risk in a majority of regions but not
everywhere. Finally, we find that the benefits of reduced
temperature-attributable mortality considerably outweigh the direct human
mortality risk of sulfate aerosol injection. These findings are robust to a
variety of alternative assumptions about socioeconomics, adaptation, and SG
implementation.


*Source: Resources for the Future*

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