https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3250111/v1

*Authors*

Katharine Ricke, Jessica Wan, Chih-Chieh (Jack) Chen, Simone Tilmes, Matthew
Luongo, ,Jadwiga Richter
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3250111/v1

*11 September 2023*

Abstract

Marine cloud brightening is a solar geoengineering1–3 proposal to cool
atmospheric temperatures and reduce some impacts of climate change.
To-date, modeling studies of solar geoengineering have primarily focused on
large-scale schemes with objectives of stabilizing or mediating changes in
global mean temperature4–7. However, these global proposals pose
substantial governance challenges8–10, making regional interventions
tailored toward targeted climate outcomes potentially more attractive in
the near-term. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of regional
marine cloud brightening in the North Pacific designed to mitigate extreme
heat in the Western United States. We find cloud brightening in a remote
mid-latitude region cools our target region more than brightening in a
proximate subtropical region, but both schemes reduce the relative risk of
dangerous summer heat exposure under present-day conditions, by 39% and 25%
respectively. However, the same cloud brightening interventions under
mid-century warming produce significantly hotter rather than cooler
summers, both in the Western U.S. and other areas of the world. We trace
this loss of efficacy to a nonlinear response of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation to the combination of greenhouse gas driven warming
and regional cloud brightening. Our result demonstrates a risk in assuming
that regional interventions that are effective under certain conditions
will remain effective as the climate continues to change.

*Source: Research Square*

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