*WEEKLY SUMMARY (09 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER 2023)* *Subscribe to the Solar Geoengineering Updates Newsletter here:* Solar Geoengineering Updates <https://solargeoengineeringupdates.substack.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=publication_embed&utm_medium=email> Monthly news summaries about solar geoengineering. Links to scientific papers, news articles, jobs, podcasts, and videos. <https://solargeoengineeringupdates.substack.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=publication_embed&utm_medium=email> By Andrew Lockley <https://solargeoengineeringupdates.substack.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=publication_embed&utm_medium=email> ------------------------------ *DEADLINES**The Climate Intervention Environmental Impact Fund <https://cieif.org/> | Application Deadline: 01 November 2023* ------------------------------ RESEARCH PAPERSModest geoengineering side effects predicted by an emulator <https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3308863/v1>
Bodai, T., Lembo, V., Aneesh, S., Ishuzu, M., Franz, M. O., & Chung, E. S. (2023). Modest geoengineering side effects predicted by an emulator. *Abstract*Side effects of solar radiation management geoengineering are unavoidable because the forcing involved is different in nature from the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Yet, the side effects should scale with the magnitude of the geonegineering forcing. Even then it is crucial to have detailed information about them. We use a response theory based emulator derived from new simulation output for the Max Planck Institute’s Earth system model, MPI-ESM, in order to evaluate the side effects in a scenario where CO2 emission abatement could also achieve the same constraint on peak global surface temperature. We find that the spatial patterns of the side effects for both annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation bear the same features as those known from the G2-type “cancellation” experiments of the Geo-MIP protocol. Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Quantify “Climate Distinguishability” After Stratospheric Aerosol Injection <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023GL106137> Mamalakis, A., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2023). Quantifying “climate distinguishability” after stratospheric aerosol injection using explainable artificial intelligence. *Authorea Preprints*.*Abstract*Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a possible response option to limit global warming and its societal consequences. However, the climate impacts of such intervention are unclear. Here, an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework is introduced to quantify how distinguishable an SAI climate might be from a pre-deployment climate. A suite of neural networks is trained on Earth system model data to learn to distinguish between pre- and post-deployment periods across a variety of climate variables. The network accuracy is analogous to the “climate distinguishability” between the periods, and the corresponding distinctive patterns are identified using XAI methods. For many variables, the two periods are less distinguishable under SAI than under a no-SAI scenario, suggesting that the specific intervention modeled decelerates future climatic changes and leads to a less novel climate than the no-SAI scenario. Other climate variables for which the intervention has negligible effect are also highlighted. Solar geoengineering and carbon removal significantly lower economic climate damages <https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(23)00443-8> Liu, A., Moore, J. C., Cheng, X., & Chen, Y. (2023). Solar geoengineering and carbon removal significantly lower economic climate damages. *One Earth* .AbstractQuantifying climate change impacts informs policy decisions and risk management. However, integrated assessment models have inherent problems in simulating geoengineered climates, limiting their capacity to assess the efficacy and risks of geoengineering as complementary measures to conventional strategies. Here, we improve climate-induced economic impact assessment, without considering social and ecological damages, for 12 scenarios by assimilating projections from 48 climate models into the PAGE-ICE model. The sustainable development pathway, including considerable implicit carbon dioxide removal, cost-effectively mitigates climate change impacts, as can scenarios that combine politically pledged emissions reductions with moderate solar geoengineering (SAI-1.5). Additionally, we find that combining solar geoengineering with no mitigation (G6) or implementing delayed but stringent carbon dioxide removal (SSP5-3.4-OS) can respectively reduce end-of-century climate damages to one-half or a one-quarter of the baseline SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our findings highlight the importance, potential benefits, and trade-offs of integrating these strategies with conventional mitigation and adaptation actions. Presenting balanced geoengineering information has little effect on mitigation engagement <https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4291738> Merk, C., & Wagner, G. (2022). Presenting Balanced Geoengineering Information Has Little Effect on Mitigation Engagement.*Abstract*‘Moral hazard’ links geoengineering to mitigation via the fear that either solar geoengineering (solar radiation management, SRM) or carbon dioxide removal (CDR) might crowd out the desire to cut emissions. Fear of this crowding-out effect ranks among the most frequently cited risks of (solar) geoengineering. We here test moral hazard versus its inverse in a large-scale, revealed-preference experiment (n~340,000) on Facebook and find little to no support for either outcome. For the most part, talking about SRM or CDR does not motivate our study population to support a large U.S. environmental non-profit’s mission, nor does it turn them off relative to baseline climate messaging. Our results indicate the importance of actors and reasoned narratives of (solar) geoengineering to help guide public discourse. The interaction of Solar Radiation Modification and Earth System Tipping Elements <https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1753/> Futerman, G., & Wieners, C. (2023). *The Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Earth System Tipping Points and Threshold Free Feedbacks* (No. EGU23-10044). Copernicus Meetings.*Abstract*The avoidance of hitting tipping points is often considered a key benefit of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) techniques, however, the physical science underpinning this has thus far not been comprehensively assessed. This review assesses the available evidence for the interaction of SRM with a number of earth system tipping elements in the cryosphere, the oceans, the atmosphere and the biosphere , with a particular focus on the impact of SAI. We review the scant available literature directly addressing the interaction of SRM with the tipping elements or for closely related proxies to these elements. However, given how limited this evidence is, we also identify and describe the drivers of the tipping elements, and then assess the available evidence for the impact of SRM on these. We then briefly assess whether SRM could halt or reverse tipping once feedbacks have been initiated. Finally, we suggest pathways for further research. We find that SRM mostly reduces the risk of hitting tipping points relative to same emission pathway scenarios without SRM, although this conclusion is not clear for every tipping element, and large uncertainties remain. <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023GL106137> <https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(23)00443-8> ------------------------------ WEB POSTSDegrees’ Inés Camilloni and Andy Parker discuss risk-risk framing and SRM research at UN science summit <https://www.degrees.ngo/degrees-at-un-science-summit/> (The Degrees Initiative)To avert climate disaster, what if one rogue nation dimmed the Sun? <https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231010-sun-solar-geoengineering-ministry-for-the-future-kim-stanley-robinson> (BBC)Oops, we stopped geoengineering (Adapting Substack) Adapting Oops, we stopped geoengineering <https://campos.substack.com/p/oops-we-stopped-geoengineering?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email> Note: The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not reflect the views of Energy Impact Partners… Read more <https://campos.substack.com/p/oops-we-stopped-geoengineering?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email> 2 months ago · 3 likes · 1 comment · Michael Campos *Response to Overshoot Commission Report <https://www.solargeoeng.org/response-to-overshoot-commission-report/> (Solar Geoengineering Non-Use Agreement )*The Brutal Realpolitik of Geoengineering <https://heatmap.news/politics/geoengineering-solar-radiation-china-united-states> (HEATMAP)A Wild Idea to Protect the Great Barrier Reef <https://nautil.us/a-wild-idea-to-protect-the-great-barrier-reef-413426/> (NAUTILUS) <https://www.degrees.ngo/degrees-at-un-science-summit/> <https://nautil.us/a-wild-idea-to-protect-the-great-barrier-reef-413426/> ------------------------------ BOOK*Ethics of Socially Disruptive Technologies <https://www.openbookpublishers.com/books/10.11647/obp.0366> (OpenBook Publishers)* ------------------------------ *UPCOMING EVENTS*(NEW) Global Dialogue on Climate Cooperation and Governance by C2G <https://c2g2-net.zoom.us/webinar/register/7816958242856/WN_x69-2hvdS-iN5F9uqwQyJg?utm_source=Carnegie+Climate+Governance+Initiative&utm_campaign=8f00fcaa05-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_01_23_07_06_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d7ddd02ed0-a42a13e139-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D#/registration> | 19 October 2023(NEW) Model Simulations of Climate Interventions Aiming to Offset Future Warming: Insights and Uncertainties by Healthy Planet Action Coalition <https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=WVZoeTBnN3kyZFoyLzYxZ1JNbDFPUT09> | 19 October 2023*Climate Engineering (GRS) <https://www.grc.org/climate-engineering-grs-conference/2024/>| 17-18 February 2024**GRC Climate Engineering 2024 <https://www.grc.org/climate-engineering-conference/2024/>| 18-23 February 2024* ------------------------------ PODCASTSHow can young people take part in solar radiation modification governance? with Clara Botto | Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G) <https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/media/series/c2g/young-people-srm-governance> *“Young people need to learn more about solar radiation modification, and provide their inputs to governments, think tanks, and policymakers, says Brazilian climate activist Clara Botto, in this C2GTalk. “We need to have global conversations to address something that might have global impacts,” she adds. That is why she and her colleagues have launched SRM Youth Watch, a global platform aimed at informing and bringing new communities into the debate.**Clara Botto has been engaged with sustainable development at a grassroots and international level, from arts to politics, for the past eight years. She is currently one of C2G’s Youth Climate Voices.”* ------------------------------ YOUTUBE VIDEOS*In Real Life: Blocking The Sun | Scripps News* <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFFfok0frrE> *“Wildfires and heat waves are pushing governments to consider a controversial question: Could we artificially reflect the sun from our atmosphere and cool our planet’s rising temperature? And more importantly, should we? “In Real Life” rides along in the world’s largest flying laboratory and sees the dire stakes surrounding a drastic step to curb climate change.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Day 1 Welcome and Panel 1: Biophysical Impacts | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opZuU2isUWw> *“Panel 1. Biophysical Impacts: Climatic and Non-climatic Risks and Benefits: The starting point for social science research on solar geoengineering (SG) is the biophysical parameters of a possible SG intervention. This session provided a grounding in SG knowns and unknowns, as well as ongoing research in this area. - Babatunde Abiodun, University of Cape Town - John Moore, University of Lapland - Daniele Visioni, Cornell University - Lili Xia, Rutgers University.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | A Conversation with the Right Honourable A. Kim Campbell, P.C. | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdZYessoAYo> *“This session includes a conversation with the Right Honourable A. Kim Campbell, P.C., former Canadian prime minister and current member of the Climate Overshoot Commission, moderated by Jonathan Wiener.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Panel 2. Would Solar Geoengineering Crowd Out Emissions Cuts? | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh5lyhHDcNM> *“Panel 2. Would Solar Geoengineering Crowd Out Emissions Cuts? The “Moral Hazard” Risk Examined A key concern about solar geoengineering research is the notion of “moral hazard” risk, where any movement to consider SG weakens the motivation to pursue mitigation. This session examined the latest social science research on SG moral hazard risk. - Joe Aldy, Harvard Kennedy School and RFF - Talbott Andrews, University of Connecticut - Dave McEvoy, Appalachian State University - Christine Merk, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - David Morrow, American University.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Solar Geoengineering’s Place in Broader Climate Strategy | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JbRgrXF3F0> *“Panel 3. Solar Geoengineering’s Place within the Broader Climate Strategy Portfolio: If solar geoengineering is deployed, it will likely occur alongside other key climate strategies, such as emission mitigation, CO2 removal, and adaptation. The aim of this session is to describe the role of SG under different development of mitigation and adaptation policies, assuming countries cooperate to fight climate change. - Mariia Belaia, George Mason University - Tony Harding, Georgia Institute of Technology - Doug MacMartin, Cornell University - Massimo Tavoni, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment - Simone TIlmes, National Center for Atmospheric Research.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Plausible Non-optimal Near-term Solar Geoengineering Scenarios | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtacHm2rv40> *“Panel 4. Plausible Non-optimal Near-term Solar Geoengineering Scenarios: Several decades of experience with global coordination and cooperation around climate mitigation suggests that solar geoengineering might emerge in a non-optimal manner. This session will examine how this might happen, what it might mean, and what actions might be warranted in the near term. - Beth Chalecki, University of Nebraska Omaha - Tyler Felgenhauer, Duke University - Joshua Horton, Harvard Kennedy School - Jessica Seddon, Yale University - Erin Sikorsky, Center for Climate and Security”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Capacity Building for Competent, Just, & Inclusive Decisionmaking | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79OBOsrUkjk> *“Panel 5. Capacity Building for Competent, Just, and Inclusive Decisionmaking: As momentum around research and governance discussions is growing, questions arise around how we should make decisions around both research and potential deployment of solar geoengineering, and who is part of a decision-making process. This panel will examine key steps to enabling and building meaningful engagement in this space. - Julie Arrighi, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre - Marion Hourdequin, Colorado College - Hassaan Sipra, Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering - Shuchi Talati, Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering - Billy Williams, American Geophysical Union”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | The NOAA Earth Radiation Budget Initiative with Greg Frost | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXAjW_M62X0> *“This session includes a conversation on the NOAA Earth Radiation Budget Initiative with Greg Frost, Special Advisor for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Solar Radiation Modification at NOAA, moderated by Kristin Hayes.”* RFF Solar Geoengineering Futures | Important Next Steps for Solar Geoengineering Policy and Research | Resources for the Future <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9dwzxI0Ho> *“Panel 6. Important Next Steps for Policy and Research: A Solar Geoengineering Research Agenda for the Next Decade: In this final panel, we hope to bring together themes from the previous session in a discussion of funding and policy possibilities and priorities. - Holly Buck, University at Buffalo - David Keith, University of Chicago - Andy Parker, The Degrees Initiative - Ted Parson, University of California, Los Angeles School of Law - Billy Pizer, Resources for the Future.”* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh98_8Ng62tgpSpgiQhV1ZdWi1bTn5JvpHCtGz2Wi49tGoQ%40mail.gmail.com.
