https://essopenarchive.org/users/770775/articles/847057-on-thin-ice-solar-geoengineering-to-manage-tipping-element-risks-in-the-cryosphere-by-2040

*Authors*
Wake Smith,Madeline Bartels ,Jasper Boers,Christian Rice

*18 April 2024*

*Cite as*: Wake Smith, Madeline Bartels , Jasper Boers, et al. On thin ice:
Solar geoengineering to manage tipping element risks in the cryosphere by
2040. ESS Open Archive . April 18, 2024.

*DOI*:10.22541/essoar.171345092.28592611/v1

*Abstract*
Tipping elements are features of the climate system which can display
self-reinforcing and non-linear responses if pushed beyond a certain
threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several
of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which
emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the
Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a
solar geoengineering program only at the poles. This paper considers the
utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent
tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It
then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required
to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require
a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

*Source: ESS OPEN ARCHIVE *

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