https://repositum.tuwien.at/handle/20.500.12708/200234

*Authors*
Mirčetić, Nikola

*Citation*: Mirčetić, N. (2024). The disappearance of ship tracks – on the
impact of sulfur reduction in marine fuel on the climate [Master Thesis,
Technische Universität Wien; Diplomatische Akademie Wien]. reposiTUm.
https://doi.org/10.34726/hss.2024.123161

*Abstract*
In response to concerns regarding human health and environmental
protection, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the IMO
2020 regulation, which reduced the sulfur content in marine fuel from 3.5%
to 0.5%. This regulation, effective since 2020, has significantly reduced
sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from ships by more than 80%. However, this
reduction has led to the unintended consequence of diminishing the
atmospheric cooling effects provided by sulfate aerosols, which previously
contributed to the formation of clouds known as ship tracks, cloud
brightening, and the scattering of solar radiation. This loss has
potentially exacerbated global warming. This thesis investigates the
climatic impact of the IMO 2020 regulation through a comparative literature
review, analyzing divergent views within the scientific community. Key
discrepancies are highlighted between the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) and climate scientist James E. Hansen and his
colleagues. The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report downplays the cooling effect
of pre-2020 shipping emissions, whereas other studies indicate a
significant cooling influence for the same period. In particular, recent
publications co-authored by Hansen demonstrate that the IMO 2020 regulation
has considerably reduced the formation of ship tracks and contributed to
recent warming. There is now compelling evidence that the IMO 2020
regulation has led to an increase in absorbed solar radiation, resulting in
an acceleration of global warming rates. *This indicates that sulfur
reductions are contributing to the occurrence of more extreme weather
events. The thesis concludes that while sulfur reductions are intended to
improve human health and reduce premature deaths attributable to ship
emissions, the climatic repercussions necessitate reevaluation. The
findings call for an improved understanding of aerosol impacts to enhance
climate models and propose deliberate geoengineering measures, such as
marine cloud brightening via aerosol injection, to mitigate the unintended
warming effects of sulfur emission reductions.*

*Source: Tuwien*

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