https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.173238705.53228461/v1

*Authors*
Katie Barnes,Anthony Crawford Jones,Paul D. Williams,Jim M. Haywood

*23 November 2024*

*Abstract*
Clear air turbulence (CAT) is a safety threat within the aviation sector
and is projected to worsen under global warming. Stratospheric aerosol
injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that aims to ameliorate
climate change by artificially cooling Earth. Climate model simulations
have found a side-effect of SAI would be a strengthening of the positive
phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This links to a stronger
North Atlantic jet stream and suggests enhanced CAT in the region. Here, we
analyse simulations from the UKESM1 climate model to evaluate the impact of
a realistic SAI application on winter-time trans-Atlantic CAT. We find a 23
% decrease in severe CAT frequency under SAI when compared to a baseline
high-end global warming scenario. Our results indicate that the
amelioration of global warming under SAI has a more dominant impact on CAT
over the North Atlantic than residual impacts to the NAO.

*Source: ESS OPEN ARCHIVES*

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