https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024EF005262
*Authors * Nina Grant, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Jyoti Singh, Brendan Clark *First published: 04 January 2025* https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005262 *Abstract* Climate change poses significant threats to global agriculture, impacting food quantity, quality, and safety. The world is far from meeting crucial climate targets, prompting the exploration of alternative strategies such as stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) to reduce the impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of SAI on rice and wheat production in India, a nation highly vulnerable to climate change given its substantial dependence on agriculture. We compare the results from the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection-1.5°C (ARISE-SAI-1.5) experiment, which aims to keep global average surface air temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) global warming scenario. Yield results show ARISE-SAI-1.5 leads to higher production for rainfed rice and wheat. We use 10 agroclimatic indices during the vegetative, reproductive, and ripening stages to evaluate these yield changes. ARISE-SAI-1.5 benefits rainfed wheat yields the most, compared to rice, due to its ability to prevent rising winter and spring temperatures while increasing wheat season precipitation. For rice, SSP2-4.5 leads to many more warm extremes than the control period during all three growth stages and may cause a delay in the monsoon. ARISE-SAI-1.5 largely preserves monsoon rainfall, improving yields for rainfed rice in most regions. Even without the use of SAI, adaptation strategies such as adjusting planting dates could offer partial relief under SSP2-4.5 if it is feasible to adjust established rice-wheat cropping systems. *Key Points* Climate intervention could benefit rainfed wheat more than irrigated crops in India, with regional differences for rainfed rice Climate intervention could maintain temperatures in all growth stages and monsoon rainfall but would not stop winter precipitation changes >From a climatic standpoint, shifting planting dates may offer relief under global warming but might not be feasible in all cases *Plain Language Summary* Climate change is causing significant problems for farming worldwide, affecting food quantity, quality, and safety. To tackle this, some are exploring new strategies like stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). This study focuses on how SAI could impact rice and wheat farming in India, a country highly dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to climate change. Yield results from a crop model suggest that SAI could increase rice and wheat yields relative to climate change, particularly rainfed rice and wheat in particular locations, but the differences are not significant over most of India for irrigated crops. Using an experiment called ARISE-SAI-1.5, we evaluate 10 agroclimatic factors that can influence rice and wheat at different growth stages to determine the reasons for these yield changes. We find that SAI could potentially reduce some of the negative effects of global warming with a medium emission path, including reducing extreme heat days and retaining the summer monsoon. SAI benefits rainfed rice and wheat especially during their sensitive growth stages, which could be important in a future where maintaining irrigation systems may not be sustainable. Without SAI, while adaptation strategies like adjusting planting dates could help with mitigating the effects, uncertainties remain. *Source: AGU* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh9_5Qs7XnQ5SbxMGHoCPPyFrXmUV6sLBi_QbpHEKrquXoQ%40mail.gmail.com.
