https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202503.1694

*Authors*
Alex Nimusiima, Godwin Ayesiga, Ronald Odongo, Catherine Mulinde, Moses
Ojara, Lawrence Aribo, Bob Alex Ogwang

*24 March 2025*

*Abstract*
This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM)
on the rainfall and temperature patterns over the Eastern Africa region.
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under
solar radiation modification of G6solar and G6sulfhur were evaluated
against the Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP
models are evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the
climate patterns in the region fairly well. Secondly, the models are run
under both SRM scenarios and SSP scenarios for 2051-2080. Results show that
G6solar SRM scenario predict slightly increased annual precipitation in the
region over SSP245 but predict reduced annual precipitation in the region
over SSP585 in the same period. G6sulfur SRM scenario predict reduced
annual precipitation over both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the
region with slightly more reduced precipitation over SSP585 compared to
SSP245 in the same period. For temperature, G6solar SRM scenario predict
reduced annual mean temperature over both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts
of the region with slightly reduced temperature over SSP585 compared to
SSP245 in the same period. However, G6sulfur is shows some inconsistent
results with some models such as IPSL-CM6A_LR predicting increased
tem-peratures under SRM compared to SSPs especially SSP245.

*Source: Preprints*

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