https://academic.oup.com/oocc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf013/8107970?searchresult=1
*Authors* Linus Boselius, Alistair Duffey, Peter J Irvine https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf013 Published: *07 April 2025* *Abstract* Projected rates of emissions reductions are unlikely to keep global temperatures from crossing the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could help recover a target temperature after it has been exceeded, producing an overshoot scenario. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is the idea to cool the planet by increasing the reflection of incoming solar radiation. SRM could be used in an overshoot scenario for ‘peak shaving’, where SRM is deployed to maintain a temperature target during the overshoot. Here, we quantify the effect of SRM peak shaving on the duration of the overshoot using an adapted extension of the SSP2-4.5 scenario and an ensemble of variants of the FaIR simple climate model. We find a substantial reduction in overshoot duration, which ranges from approximately 5% for multi-decade overshoots up to approximately 20% for multi-century overshoots. The shortening is predominantly driven by the ocean response to peak shaving. Peak shaving results in lower ocean temperatures relative to the overshoot scenario, inducing a stronger surface temperature response to decreasing and negative emissions, driving overshoot shortening. Thus, SRM, when deployed as a complement to emissions reductions and CDR, could end overshoot decades earlier than otherwise. *Lay Summary* Recently, scientists have been researching new ways to help tackle climate change. One idea is ‘solar radiation modification’ (SRM), which involves cooling the planet by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. ‘Peak shaving’ is a proposed scenario involving SRM, where SRM is used to global mean target temperature to a target level, such as 2 °C, until SRM is no longer needed, decades or centuries later, due to large-scale emissions removals which have gradually reduced the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere during a period of net negative emissions. This study investigates the effect of peak shaving on the time taken for temperatures to drop below the target temperature without the need for continued SRM. We find that peak shaving reduces this duration by up to approximately 20%, which we term ‘overshoot shortening’. We find that this is driven by avoided increases in ocean temperatures, which impact surface temperatures. *Source: Oxford Open Climate Change* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh9_WvcXgw92RAbfRk01n0cMHp4Rmqm-SdHA2jLmEX0m7eA%40mail.gmail.com.
