https://technicalgeography.org/index.php/on-line-first/534-20_koesuma

*Authors*
Sorja Koesuma , Akhmad Faqih , Hendri Hendri , Jassica Listyarin , Delfina
Azzahra Kusuma , Angger Zufan Hanggara , Rahmat Gernowo

DOI: 10.21163/GT_2025.201.20

*Abstract*
The East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and Papua provinces, located in eastern
Indonesia, have recently experienced an increase in the frequency and
intensity of tropical cyclones and extreme weather events. The impact of
tropical cyclones in this region, particularly in terms of extreme
rainfall, has raised concerns about the potential for severe flooding,
landslides, and damage to infrastructure. This study aims to investigate
the extreme rainfall due to tropical cyclones. We focus on three tropical
cyclones (TC) that struck in eastern Indonesia, i.e., Seroja TC (April
2021), Surigae TC (April 2021), and Rai TC (December 2021). The extreme
rainfall during TC was analyzed using the ERA5 model, with Bias correction
from GeoMIP applied to enhance accuracy. The Solar Radiation Management
(SRM) is used for comparative analysis and impact evaluation, assessing how
each scenarios influence extreme rainfall during tropical cyclones by
comparing GeoMIP model with ERA5 data. Our analysis using Solar Radiation
Management (SRM) shows that the data from both sources correlate well and
indicate a decrease in rainfall over eastern Indonesia during the tropical
cyclone. Potential biases in the GeoMIP approach, such as the
simplification of cloud-aerosol interactions and the assumptions underlying
the SRM mechanism, may contribute to underestimating precipitation.

*Source: Georgia Technica*

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