Ron et al.--Just a note that the 3 C sensitivity is not "embedded" in
the climate models. That is the value that emerges from the
representations of the various physical processes that play out against
each other. So, assuming the observations and resulting analyses are
accurate, for there to be a higher sensitivity, it might be that some of
the processes are not parameterized in a way that fully represents
possibilities and realities (observations to calibrate parameterizations
can be drawn from only the conditions we are experiencing), some
processes are not represented at all (viewed as long-term such as
isostatic rebound, etc.), the resolution of the models is not fine
enough to treat aspects of the processes, etc. In any case, however, the
3 C sensitivity is not built into the models.
Mike
On 5/19/25 1:49 PM, Ron Baiman wrote:
Thank you LDM and Dan,
@LDM:
(IMO) Thanks for sharing! IMO this recent Hansen and Kharecha
Newsletter with further evidence supporting a climate sensitivity of
4.5 rather than the established IPCC value of 3.0 that is (as I
understand it) embedded in most current climate models, is excellent
and should be widely distributed, per these last two paragraphs:
"Criticisms of the Acceleration paper in the media did not address the
physics in our three assessments of
climate sensitivity. Instead, criticisms were largely ad hoc opinions,
even ad hominem attacks. How can
science reporting have descended to this level? Climate science is now
so complex, with many sub-
disciplines, that the media must rely on opinions of climate experts.
Although there are thousands of
capable scientists in these disciplines, the media have come to depend
on a handful of scientists, a clique
of climate scientists who are willing, or even eager, to be the voice
of the climate science community.
But are they representative of the total community, of capable
scientists who focus on climate science?
We have lamented9 the absence of scientists with the breadth of
understanding of say Jule Charney or
Francis Bretherton,10 or our beloved, sometimes crotchety, former
colleague, Wally Broecker. However,
the truth is that there are many scientists out there with a depth of
understanding at least as great as the
clique of scientists that the media rely on. Given the success of this
clique in painting us as outliers, we
are dependent on the larger community being willing to help educate
the media about the current climate
situation. For that purpose, we will discuss – one-by-one in upcoming
communications – several of the
matters that are raised in our papers. Thanks for your attention."
@Dan: Thanks for sharing! I will definitely give this a listen!
Best,
Ron
On Sun, May 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM LDM <[email protected]> wrote:
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf
Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity
James Hansen and Pushker Kharecha
13 May 2025
Abstract.
Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) declined over the 25 years of
precise satellite data, with the decline so large that this change
must be mainly reduced reflection of sunlight by clouds. Part of
the cloud change is caused by reduction of human-made atmospheric
aerosols, which act as condensation nuclei for cloud formation,
but most of the cloud change is cloud feedback that occurs with
global warming. The observed albedo change proves that clouds
provide a large, amplifying, climate feedback. This large cloud
feedback confirms high climate sensitivity, consistent with
paleoclimate data and with the rate of global warming in the past
century.
https://youtu.be/NxV1IbHt7fU
When Will We Go Over 2ºC? & Hansen's Cloud Update
<https://www.youtube.com/@climatechat>
On Sun, May 18, 2025 at 9:09 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote:
Wow! Thanks for sharing Renaud. I haven't read it but from
the abstract it (very unfortunate for all of us humans and
most other species, but not really surprising for many of us
humans) looks like forecasts of Hansen et al. 2024 are being
vindicated!
Best,
Ron
On Wed, May 14, 2025 at 9:51 AM Renaud de RICHTER
<[email protected]> wrote:
Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001636
Abstract
Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions which upset the delicate balance between the
incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation
from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in
the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the
cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising
sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe.
Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in
regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for
more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is
rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.
Key Points
*
Earth's energy imbalance more than doubled in recent
decades
*
The large trend has taken us by surprise, and as a
community we should strive to understand the
underlying causes
*
Our capability to observe the Earth's energy imbalance
and budget terms is threatened as satellites are
decommissioned
Plain Language Summary
Global warming is caused by the imbalance between the
incoming radiation from the Sun and the reflected and
outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth. The imbalance
leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and
land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in
increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more
extreme weather around the globe according the the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that
it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it
reached values two times higher than the best estimate
from IPCC. We argue that we must strive to better
understand this fundamental change in Earth's climate
state, and ensure our capacity to monitor it in the future.
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