https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/646/xml

*Authors*
by Alex Nimusiima, Godwin Ayesiga, Ronald Ingula Odongo, Catherine Mulinde,
Lawrence Aribo, Moses Ojara, and Bob Alex Ogwang

*27 May 2025*

*Abstract*
This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM)
on the rainfall and temperature spatial patterns over the Eastern Africa
region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models
under the SRM scenarios of G6solar and G6sulfur are evaluated against the
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP models are
evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the climate
spatial patterns in the region fairly well but with a dry bias for all the
models. Secondly, the models are run under both the SRM scenarios and the
SSP scenarios for 2051–2080. Results show that G6solar SRM scenario
predicts increased annual precipitation in the region compared to SSP245
but predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to SSP585 in the same
period. The G6sulfur scenario predicts reduced annual precipitation
compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with more
reductions expected over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. For
temperature, the G6solar scenario predicts a reduced annual mean
temperature compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region,
with more reductions in temperature against SSP585 compared to SSP245 in
the same period. However, G6sulfur shows some inconsistent results, with
some models predicting increased temperatures under SRM compared to SSPs,
especially for SSP245, while other models predict reduced temperatures in
the same period.

*Source: MDPI*

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