https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005810

*Authors: *Alice F. Wells, James M. Haywood

First published: *16 October 2025*

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005810

*Abstract*
This study investigates the potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
(SAI), a solar climate intervention strategy, to mitigate climate extremes
driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, comparing its effects to those of
GHG-induced warming under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Using the UKESM1 climate
model and the GeoMIP G6controller scenario, we examine extreme temperature,
precipitation, and fire risk indices in a risk-risk framework. The
multi-latitude G6controller strategy, an improvement on the equatorial
injection strategy G6sulfur, reduces global mean temperature from SSP5-8.5
to SSP2-4.5, significantly reducing temperature and precipitation extremes.
Results show that G6controller effectively reduces temperature extremes
relative to SSP5-8.5, especially in populated areas like Europe and South
America, and reduces fire risk in high-risk areas, such as South America
and southern Africa. While both scenarios project broad precipitation
increases, G6controller moderates these without introducing new drying
relative to SSP5-8.5, particularly in Southeast Asia. This study highlights
G6controller's potential to lessen the magnitude of extreme climate events,
offering insights into SAI's regional efficacy and highlighting the
trade-offs between GHG warming with and without solar climate intervention.

*Plain Language Summary*
This study looks at how injecting reflective particles into the middle
atmosphere, a process called Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), might
help reduce the severe impacts of climate change, like heatwaves, heavy
rainfall, and wildfires. It compares two future scenarios: one where
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise and another where SAI is
used to cool the planet. The results show that SAI can significantly reduce
extreme heat and wildfire risks in many regions while also lessening the
intensity of heavy rains. However, the strategy doesn't work equally well
everywhere and comes with trade-offs. This research provides valuable
insights for understanding how SAI could help manage climate risks in the
future while emphasizing the continued importance of cutting GHG emissions.

*Key Points*

This study compares the impacts on extreme events under climate change with
and without a multi-latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection strategy in
UKESM1

G6controller reduces extreme heat relative to GHG warming, particularly in
populated regions, reducing warming trends by nearly half

Fire danger days decrease under G6controller compared to SSP5-8.5,
mitigating wildfire risks by reducing precipitation changes

*Source: AGU*

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