https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02460-5
*Authors: *Thomas Bossy, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Franck Lecocq, Philippe Bousquet & Thomas Gasser *04 November 2025* *Abstract* Climate boundaries are planetary boundaries for the climate system: limits within which humanity can sustainably prosper. Here we introduce a modelling framework to analyse global warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and Arctic sea-ice melt. Using a reduced-form model, we map out anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon dioxide removal and *solar radiation management* pathways compatible with these boundaries. We define safety levels as the probability to stay within one or several boundaries considering physical uncertainty. If CO2 emissions peak in 2030, net-zero CO2 is reached in 2050, and carbon dioxide removal capacity is 10 PgC yr−1, without solar radiation management, remaining within the global warming boundary of 2 °C exhibits a safety level of 80%. When all four boundaries are considered together, the safety level drops to 35%. Our results highlight key trade-offs in mitigation options and suggest a need to assess climate boundaries holistically to develop sustainable future strategies. *Source: Nature Climate Change * -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh98rk%2B6KVy03m7xrTfLisyO%2BgQDwT7TD2VRWFZX-0YvTzw%40mail.gmail.com.
