https://stratcomcoe.org/pdfjs/?file=/publications/download/DSC_NATO_journal_Vol16_Trish-Lavery.pdf?zoom=page-fit

*Authors: *Trish Lavery

*Abstract*
Solar Geoengineering interventions are designed to reflect sunlight and
reduce the impacts of climate change. These are attracting increased
research and policy attention while simultaneously being targets for
disinformation campaigns and conspiracy theories. The technical complexity,
scientific uncertainties, and governance controversies of climate cooling
technologies create ideal conditions for information manipulation, making
them vulnerable to exploitation by malign actors. Influence operators have
already demonstrated sophisticated capabilities in exploiting weather
modification and climate change narratives for strategic advantage. This
establishes a precedent that could see solar geoengineering disinformation
used as a hybrid threat and an inevitable focus of future influence
campaigns. This article analyses the implications of solar geoengineering
disinformation, demonstrates how malign actors could exploit scientific and
governance uncertainty for geopolitical advantage, and introduces a
strategic communications framework to guide policymakers, researchers, and
communications professionals on mechanisms to preserve space for rational
deliberation on these technologies. The goal of the framework is not to
promote or discourage solar geoengineering research or deployment but to
protect the conditions necessary for informed democratic debate. The
disinformation threat considered here does not arise from adversary
opposition to (or support for) solar radiation modification per se, but
rather from campaigns designed to prevent conditions necessary for
evidence-informed debate and democratic choice. The capacity for
evidence-based deliberation about climate cooling represents a crucial test
of democratic resilience in contested information environments.

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