Dear all,
The German Advisory Council on the Environment--an academic advisory
body to the German government, of which I am a member, has released the
first part of a major report it is working on, entitled
Climate-friendly, reliable, affordable: 100% Renewable Electricity
Supply by 2050. The report outlines how and why Germany (in cooperation
with other countries) can and should seriously consider trying to
achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050. The report was presented
before the German parliament and has been getting quite a bit of press.
Although the full report has not yet been translated into English, there
is an English press release. I thought it might be interesting for some
on the GEP-ED list to see.
Climate-friendly, reliable, affordable:
100% renewable electricity supply by 2050
Year of issue
2010
date of issue
2010.05.05
„Germany can be supplied with 100% climate-friendly electricity from
renewable sources by 2050” declared the Chair of the German Advisory
Council on the Environment (SRU), Prof Martin Faulstich, today in the
Environment Committee of the German Bundestag where the Council
presented its scenarios for a renewable electricity supply in Germany.
“This is the time for the German Federal Government to set the course
for the transition of the energy system”, Prof Faulstich added.
The energy expert of the SRU, Prof Olav Hohmeyer, emphasised: “The
transition towards a renewable electricity system does not require
either an extension of the operating life of nuclear power plants or the
construction of new coal power plants.” The “bridge” towards renewable
energy is already in place.
The German Advisory Council on the Environment shows in a range of
different future scenarios that a fully renewables-based electricity
supply by 2050 is possible at competitive costs. Security of supply can
be guaranteed at all times, every hour of the year. This provides an
opportunity for sustainable innovation, enhancing the outlook for
Germany’s economic future.
The scenarios are based on modelling results by the German Aerospace
Center (DLR). The REMix model which was used for the calculations is
amongst the best and most sophisticated models in Europe. It works with
an extremely high temporal resolution in modelling electricity supply
and demand.
Major results of the scenarios include:
1. The sustainable potential for renewable energy in Europe exceeds the
current and future electricity demand many times.
2. Because the supply of wind and solar energy fluctuates considerably,
however, meeting the demand requires an extension of the grid as well as
the development of electricity storage capacities. For storage, the SRU
recommends in particular a close cooperation with Scandinavian countries
such as Norway and Sweden. For example, a connection between
Scandinavian hydro power and pump storage potentials and German supply
potentials can create the required balancing mechanism and thereby lower
the costs. The SRU also shows how a larger European-North African
network can provide a reliable and low-cost electricity supply.
3. The electricity production costs in a fully renewables-based
electricity system would according to calculations by the SRU probably
be even lower than those in a system based on a mix of renewables and
low-carbon conventional fuels. The costs of power generation, storage
and international grid extension could in 2050 be in the range of 6 to 7
ct/kWh if policy is committed to stringent energy efficiency and saving
as well as to the development of an overarching European electricity
grid. Electricity production costs currently contribute about one third
to the electricity prices for private consumers.
4. The necessary renewal of the power plant capital stock in Germany
offers particularly favourable conditions for a transition towards
renewable sources. Existing conventional power plants and those already
under construction could successively be taken off the grid at the end
of their regular lifetime. The SRU estimates that the gradual reduction
of conventional capacity can be compensated through the addition of
renewable capacity.
This means: The transition towards a renewables-based electricity supply
does not require either an extension of the operating life of nuclear
power plants or the construction of new coal power stations with Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS). The SRU cautions that a significant extension
of the operating life of nuclear power plants would lead to
overcapacities in the system. In the long term, conventional power
plants are not compatible with renewable electricity supply because
their output cannot be adjusted sufficiently quickly to match the
fluctuations of wind and solar power generation. The permanent
co-existence of conventional and growing renewable electricity
generation would make the system inefficient and unnecessarily expensive.
5. Grid extension and the development of electricity storage in Germany
and the EU is the biggest challenge for a rapid transition towards a
renewables-based electricity system. Here, quick action is urgently
required. The SRU advises the Federal Government to play a very active
role in planning the extension.
The scenarios presented by the SRU are part of a Special Report on the
future of the electricity supply which will be published in the autumn.
The Special Report will address in detail the political, legal, and
economic requirements for a transformation of the electricity system
towards a fully renewable-based supply. The scenarios which have been
published today ahead of the full report can be downloaded at
www.umweltrat.de.
For further information, please contact Dr. Christian Hey on +49
(0)30-26 36 96-0.
The Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) was founded in 1971 to
advise the German government. The Council is made up of seven university
professors from a range of different environment-related disciplines.
This ensures an encompassing and independent evaluation from a natural
scientific and technical as well as from an economic, legal, ethical and
political science perspective.
The Council has currently the following members:
* Prof. Dr. Martin Faulstich
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Faulstich.html>
(Vorsitzender), Technische Universität München
* Prof. Dr. Heidi Foth
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Foth.html>(stellv.
Vorsitzende), Universität Halle-Wittenberg
* Prof. Dr. Christian Calliess
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Calliess.html>, Freie
Universität Berlin
* Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Hohmeyer.html>,
Universität Flensburg
* Prof. Dr. Karin Holm-Müller
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Holm-Mueller.html>,
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
* Prof. Dr. Manfred Niekisch
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Niekisch.html>,
Zoologischer Garten Frankfurt
* Prof. Dr. Miranda Schreurs
<SharedDocs/Personen/DE/Mitarbeiter/Raete/Schreurs.html>, Freie
Universität Berlin
Best,
Miranda Schreurs
--
*************************************
Prof. Miranda Schreurs
Director, Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU)
Department of Political and Social Sciences
Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science
Freie Universitat Berlin
Ihnestr. 22 / D - 14195 Berlin-Dahlem
phone: (+)49 - 30 - 838 56687
fax: (+)49 - 30 - 838 566 85
web: www.fu-berlin.de/ffu
