A recent study is cited below that seek to make an assessment of how we can determine when the incidence or intensity of storms results in a signal to noise ratio that allows us to (tentatively, very tentatively given the limited duration of the datasets) begin to draw such conclusions. Additionally, as Susie suggested in an earlier message, this study demonstrates a very substantial increase in storm intensity in the North Atlantic over the past 30 years, and links this to the theoretical bases that we have in GCMs for predicting an increase in storm intensity:
- Emanuel, Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years, 436 Nature (2005) (very important study also because it addresses some of Roger Pielke's arguments contra)
Another good place to look for discusison on this issue is www.realclimate.org.
wil
Michael Maniates <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Susi and Peter,
At the risk of muddying the waters, see the recent interview (video and transcript available) and supporting Science articles at "On Point" at http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=100505&page=1 and <http://www.eenews.net/Greenwire/searcharchive/test_search-display.cgi?q=&file=/Greenwire/searcharchive/Newsline/2005/September16/09160515.htm>
--Mike Maniates
At 11:57 AM 10/25/2005, Susi Moser wrote:
Peter -
I'm not a "deep climatologist" or expert on this matter, but it is my understanding that it is not about statistical significance that we can't say for sure whether the climate extremes are related or not to climate. It's about the grid-size of the climate models (too wide a net, small storms all fall through...), that we can't relate them causally in that way.
As for trends in frequency and severity - there are none yet (for hurricanes anyway) regarding the former (seems still to be just the normal decadal variation in frequency), but some pointers toward increases in the intensity, and the intensity of the most severe storms.
Not sure this helps, but maybe distinguishes some of the issues.
Susi
Peter M Haas wrote:
I was talking in class today about whether recent extreme weather was in fact a warning sign of global warming or not. This raised the statistical arguments regarding natural variation in observed weather conditions. My question is this: what frequency or severity of storms would constitute statistical confirmation of global warming? I don't mean the Hanson type argument that the clustering is suggestive, I want to know how many per year would be statistically significant. Thanks.
Peter M. Haas
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