*NOYNOY gets a MAJORITY, not a PLURALITY*

according to this very new SWS survey
conducted last week; the only caveat being:
the respondents only covered LUZON.

Nonetheless, this is all the more impressive
as the survey was conducted BEFORE 09-09-09,
when Noynoy formally declared his candidacy.


I CAN'T WAIT for the corresponding surveys
from the VISAYAS and MINDANAO...

CEBU still seems loyal to GMA though;
after all, she made a big show of having
her dubious 2nd inauguration there in 2004,
thanks to the machinations of The Great Garci!




Noynoy tsunami

It’s a Noynoy tsunami.

If elections were held today, in a five-cornered presidential contest, Sen.
Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, will win hands down with 50 per cent of the votes,
according to a survey conducted by the Social Weather Station last Sept. 5
and 6 in the vote-rich province of Pangasinan, the National Capital Region,
Central Luzon and the Calabarzon.

Click below for the survey:

Sept 5 to 6 SWS
Survey<http://www.ellentordesillas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Sept-5-to-6-SWS-Survey.ppt>

The survey, done after Sen. Mar Roxas withdrew from the presidential race
and before Aquino declared his presidential bid showed Aquino getting 50
percent of the votes followed by Sen. Manuel Villar with 14 per cent, former
President Estrada with 13 per cent, Sen. Francis Escudero with 12 per cent
and Vice President Noli de Castro with 7 per cent.

If the contest were minus Escudero, Aquino would get 55 per cent; Villar, 17
per cent; Estrada, 15 per cent, and De Castro, 8 per cent. Two percent said,
“None” and one percent said “Don’t know.”

If it were a three-cornered fight, Aquino would get 63 per cent; Villar 21
per cent; and De Castro 9 per cent. Two per cent volunteered the name of
Estrada. Thre percent said “None” and undecided, one per cent.

As to running mate to Aquino, the team up with Roxas got the highest vote
with 51 per cent; Aquino-Escudero with 49 per cent; Aquino- (Loren) Legarda
with 46 per cent; Aquino- (Francis) Pangilinan with 43 per cent and Aquino-
(Jinggoy) Estrada with 33 per cent.

The survey was conducted among 1,200 respondents in the Luzon regions which
consists of 40 per cent of the country’s voting population. Margin of error
of plus and minus three per cent.

Pangasinan belongs to Region One (Ilocos Region).

The National Capital Region consists of the cities of Caloocan, Las Piñas,
Makati, Malabon,Mandaluyong, Manila, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas,
Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, Pateros,Quezon City, San Juan, Taguig City, and
Valenzuela.

Central Luzon (Region III) consists San fernando City, Angeles City, Aurora,
Bataan, Bulacan,Nueva Ecija, Olongapo City, Pampanga,Tarlac, and Zambales.

Calabarzon (Reg. IV-A) consists of Calamba City, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna,
Lucena City, Quezon, and Rizal.


50% prefer Noynoy in vote-rich Luzon areas: SWS survey
------------------------------

*By Ricky Carandang, ANC and Isagani de Castro Jr.,
abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak* | 09/13/2009 4:19 PM

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MANILA - One out of every two voters in vote-rich areas of Luzon would have
chosen Sen. Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III if presidential elections were held
in early September 2009, according to a Special Survey by the Social Weather
Stations (SWS) obtained by ANC and abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak.

Aquino was preferred by 50% of 1,200 respondents from a pre-selected list of
five names that also included erstwhile survey leaders Sen. Manuel “Manny”
Villar Jr., former President Joseph Estrada, Senator Francis 'Chiz'
Escudero, and Vice-President Noli de Castro.

Villar, Estrada, and Escudero were statistically tied with 14%, 13%, and
12%, respectively. De Castro was preferred by 7% of respondents.

The survey was commissioned by a number of private individuals including
some members of the business community.

The survey was conducted September 5 to 6 in the National Capital Region
(NCR), Pangasinan province, Region 3 (Central Luzon), and Region 4-A
(portions of Southern Tagalog).

This two-day period was after presidential aspirant Sen. Manuel 'Mar' Roxas
II withdrew from the race in favor of Aquino, his Liberal Party colleague,
and just days before Aquino announced he would run for the presidency. Roxas
backed out on September 1 while Aquino announced his bid on September 9.

The survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 3%.

Although not a nationwide survey, the results give a good gauge of the
competitiveness of the son of the late former President Corazon Aquino
vis-a-vis the early birds in the presidential race.

*Lingayen-Lucena corridor*

Political tacticians refer to the vote-rich corridor from Lingayen in
Pangasinan province to Lucena in Quezon province as a good indicator of a
candidate's chances. These are mainly urban areas where television and radio
play a big role in influencing the choices of voters.

The special survey also asked respondents to choose their preferences from
different lists of names.

>From a list of four names--Aquino, Villar, Estrada, de Castro--meaning
without Escudero, Aquino got an even higher voter preference in the
vote-rich areas of Luzon:

Aquino--55%
Villar--17%
Estrada--15%
De Castro--8%.
None--2%
Don't know--1%

>From a list of only three names--Aquino, Villar, de Castro--or without
Escudero and Estrada, the results were:

Aquino--63%;
Villar--21%;
De Castro--9%.
Estrada--2% (volunteered Estrada's name even if it was not on the list)
Don't know--1%
None--3%

*Aquino-Roxas tandem top pick*


In terms of which tandem was most preferred by respondents in the vote-rich
areas of Luzon, Aquino-Mar Roxas got 51% voter preference based on a
pre-selected list of five combinations:

Aquino-Roxas--51%
Estrada-Loren Legarda--12%
Villar-Kiko Pangilinan--11%
Escudero-Jejomar Binay--9%
De Castro-Ronnie Puno--4%.

Based on a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Escudero--49%
Villar-Pangilinan--16%
Estrada-Legarda--15%
De Castro-Puno--5%

Based on a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Estrada--33%
Villar-Pangilinan--20%
Escudero-Legarda--20%
De Castro-Puno--6%

Based a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Legarda--46%
Villar-Pangilinan--17%
Escudero-Binay--13%
De Castro-Puno--5%

*Long way to go*

However, a lot of factors can still affect the results of future surveys,
including political advertisements, endorsements, campaign funding, debates,
and candidates backing out. The elections are still eight months away.

The September 5 to 6 survey was when there was heavy media coverage about
Roxas' withdrawal and Aquino's period of discernment on whether to run.

It remains to be seen whether Aquino, and an Aquino-Roxas tandem, will be
able to keep this apparently commanding lead in the vote-rich areas of
Luzon.

-- 
spanx' blog:
http://spankyenriquez.blogspot.com/

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