---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua) <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 6:07 AM Subject: Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) enters PAR..heads for Aurora [Update #008] To: [email protected], [email protected]
------------------------------ *for Wednesday, 28 October 2009 [9:47 PM PST]* *[image: click to get RSS data]* <http://www.maybagyo.com/update_rss.php> ------------------------------ *<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>> **Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on SANTI! For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to 2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun) *only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received. *powered by: Synermaxx <http://www.synermaxx.com/> ------------------------------ *Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009): Currently issuing 6-hrly web, sms & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).* * ------------------------------ **MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY: **+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph* ------------------------------ TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921] *T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008* *11:00 PM PST (15:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009 Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011 View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)<http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/typhoon2000asiapac_stormlist/> * ------------------------------ Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has slightly slowed down as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...increasing its threat to Eastern Luzon particularly the province of Aurora. *Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI). *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. *+ Forecast Outlook: *MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur.* The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. * *+ Effects:* MIRINAE maintains an average, with the appearance of a an cloud-filled EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30.* 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. **Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount*<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ETRAP/2009/NWPacific/MIRINAE/2009MIRINAE.pmqpf.10280600.00.GIF> *.* *[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] * * ------------------------------ Time/Date: 11:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009 Location of Eye: 16.4º N Lat 134.7º E Lon Distance 1: 1,160 km (133 nm) ENE of P.A.R. Distance 2: 1,355 km (765 nm) East of Aurora Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora MaxWinds (1-min avg):** 160 kph (85 kts) near the center Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (90 kts) 6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Scale> Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Scale> * Minimum Central Pressure: 958 millibars (hPa) Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (15 kts) Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.Aurora Area Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average<http://www.typhoon2000.ph/tcsizes.htm> Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m) Wunder *Track*Map (for Public): 8 PM PST Wed Oct 28<http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/wp200923_5day.gif> JTWC Ship Avoidance *Track*Map: *2 AM Thu Oct 29*<http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif> *Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 PM Thu Oct 28<http://www.cheunghy.com/shared/tc/?name=MIRINAE> TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead<http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/200923W.html> NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01<http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/TRMM/NRTtyphoon/ts0923W_e.htm> EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02<http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/adeos2/typhoon/typhoon.cgi?mode=view> Zoomed Satellite Pic:** **Near Real-Time*<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg> *Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop<http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/wp200923_sat_anim.gif> ** ------------------------------ * * JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.5N 132.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 26 KPH * 8 PM (12 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.4N 129.3E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 22 KPH 8 PM (12 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.4N 124.3E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 20 KPH 8 PM (12 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.4N 119.9E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) WED 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.3N 135.4E. **TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...(**more*<http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309prog.txt> *) *>> *MIRINAE,* meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by:* Korea.* __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ *PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): * *> 10 PM (22 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 16.3N 135.0E / WEST @ 24 kph / 140 kph* :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM <http://wunderground.com/> TRACKING CHART**: * ** ** ** ____________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ *RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE**: * > Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: > Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/) * ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! > Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm> ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * *NOTE:* ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning. * __________________________________________________________________________________________ * >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff: http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php<http://www.srh..noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php> http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml * __________________________________________________________________________________________ *For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @: > http://www.typhoon2000.com > http://www.maybagyo.com <http://www.typhoon2000.com/> > http://www.typhoon2000.ph :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm ------------------------------ *Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved* __._,_.___ Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional Change settings via the Web<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/typhoon2000ph_stormlist/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnNjE4bmFuBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzEzNTE0NjU3BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTA4MzYxNQRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNzdG5ncwRzdGltZQMxMjU2NzcxMDk4>(Yahoo! 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