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Posted by Lila Shahani on FB: Analysis of the Ampatuan massacre by Bertini "Toto" Causing An analysis, in the wake of the Ampatuan murders, by Bertini "Toto" Causing, a member of the board of the National Press Club of the Philippines and also legal consultant for the National Press Club. Mr Causing is columnist both of Hataw and Police Files Tonight. ANALYSIS You must know that Norberto Gonzales as Defense Secretary is a "terror" operator and if he is to work with political operator Ronaldo Puno, they become a dreaded pair. Remember that Gonzales came from National Intelligence Security Agency, from where came the Vidal Doble who taped Garcillano's talks with Gloria. Also remember that Puno (the bad one) was instrumental in making Miriam Santiago lose to FVR and in Garci operations in Mindanao. You must also know that before the Ampatuan massacre, there were hell-bent planning sessions on how Gloria could possibly hold over, de facto or de jure. They were looking at how they can foment war in Muslim areas to have a justification for sinister plots. Instead of launching war against MILF and MNLF which is expensive, what Gonzales did was to make "chismis" circulating between two possible warring clans. The timing was perfect because Datu Andal Sr. was so worried how he can stay in power because of the three-term limit. Andal Sr. even went to the Comelec in the Province of Maguindanao to ask what should he do to enable him to run again for the 2010 elections. A "bobo" Comelec official advised him to take a leave. Another Comelec official advised him to resign. Confused, Andal Sr. went to Malacanang and asked an Arroyo confidante what to do. And Andal was told that the only way for him to hold on to power is to prevent elections there from happening. And he was advised to do what is necessary. I do not know what was the advice; but I surmise that he was egged on not to give in to the Mangudadatus who were hell bent on grabbing power from him. In short, "binatirya" or "tsinismis patalikod ang mga Mangudadatu kay Andal na aagawin ang poder sa kanila." And once the power is taken over, the Mangudadatus would take revenge for the earlier raids done on them resulting in seizure of firearms. Obssesed with desire to keep power revved up by "chismis", the Ampatuans harbored deep hatred and extreme fear of losing power. And to ensure that no election shall occur, the killings should be done with extreme brutality to justify "martial law," a condition when no election can be held in the province. They were only looking at killing and burying to nowhere the Mangudadatus and families so that they would only be recorded as missing and would be charged against the rebels or Abu Sayyaf, not thinking they would be including 30 journalists in their plan for they did not think that Mangudadatu would ask for the help of media men. And if there would be martial law, the Ampatuans stay in power under the hold-over principle. But their game plot failed during the execution. Thank God: before they knew it, Toto Mangudadatu was able to know the abduction because his wife was able to call him up, prompting Toto Mangudadatu to call for Army assistance; the soldiers responded quick enough that forced the killers to escape even though the other victims were not yet buried, leading to the discovery of the plan; thus, the execution failed. The original plot was just to make it appear that the victims disappeared mysteriously so that it can be blamed to heightened rebellion that would justify attacks on MILF which, in turn, would justify martial law. Until here, I believe I have answered now the question why it should be as brutal as this. It was the Ampatuans who did the act and planned the act. The Gloria government only happened to have benefited from it to justify martial rule. What would be the net effect when martial law gains momentum in Maguindanao? It will embolden the Gloria machines to do the same in other Muslim provinces: (a) Wahab Akbar's family vs Gerry Salappudin's in Basilan; (b) Sakur Tan clan vs Tupay Loong clan in Sulu; (c) Jaafar clan vs opponents in Tawi-Tawi; (d) Dimaporo clan in Lanao Norte against a challenging clan; and (e) Many clans in Lanao Sur. If Norberto Gonzales would have his way, he wanted all of them to fight each other to justify martial law in the rest of Muslim provinces. Remember that the total number of votes in these provinces is substantially big enough to cause suspension of proclamation of winners in Presidential, Vice-Presidential and Senatorial races. So that when proclamation cannot be had and it will be aggravated and prolonged by creative petitions and protests to be filed before the Comelec, the Speaker of the House (Gloria) would act as Acting President. Why? Since there would be no president, vice president and senators who would be proclaimed, the Speaker takes over under the Constitution. Gloria would argue that the 12 present senators cannot choose a Senate President because it needs at least 13 votes to elect the Senate President. Another plus or bonus for them: the House of Representatives will approve to extend martial law by means of them voting together with the Senators where the senator's vote is only one. A dummy petition shall be filed to question the act of "voting jointly" by means of outnumbering the Senators; and hoping the Gloria-appointees- dominated Supreme Court would rule that "voting jointly" means lumping together the senators and the congressmen and each of them has only ONE VOTE. And when the Supreme Court would go Gloria's way, they would now implement House Resolution 1109 calling for the senators and congressmen to "vote jointly" for a CON-ASS to pave the way for a parliamentary government. This PLUS or BONUS may happen before or after the 2010 elections. If it happens after elections, the picture that you would see is that the leading candidates for president, vice-president and senators cannot be proclaimed because their margin of leads can still be overturned by the total votes in areas where voting would be deferred till eternity by Martial Law. So that this is a GRIM POSSIBILITY. Patriotically yours, Toto Causing -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "gimik" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/gimik?hl=en.
