scary.....
---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua) <[email protected]> Date: Tue, Oct 12, 2010 at 1:01 PM Subject: T2K/NCF-TPC Philippine Typhoon Forecast for 2010 [from October-December] To: [email protected], [email protected] ------------------------------ *T2K/NCF-TPC Philippine Typhoon Forecast Outlook for 2010* *Issued on Monday, 27 September 2010 Author: David Michael V. Padua **(Director, NCF Typhoon Preparedness Center/Typhoon2000.com)* ------------------------------ *Typhoon Activity for the Philippines:* *POSSIBLE LANDFALL OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 DESTRUCTIVE TYPHOONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST QUARTER OF 2010 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES (Oct 01-Dec 30). {a 60% chance of happening} * *The Eastern Coasts of Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao would likely be the most affected for this last quarter forecast. Areas particularly the Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan and Surigao are highly vulnerable to intense, landfalling typhoons especially during the last quarter of each year.* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *ANALYSIS* The abrupt transition from a slightly strong El Niño towards La Niña conditions this year signals the possibility of the above prediction for the Philippines. Recent 2010 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasts from the *City Uni- versity of Hong Kong* ( http://weather.cityu.edu.hk/tc_forecast/2010_forecast_JUN.htm) and the *Tropical Storm Risk* website ( http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastAug2010.pdf) in United Kingdom show a below-average activity of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific -- *however,despite the below- average activity, the Philippines may not be spared from landfalling typhoons as evidenced in the past.* There are three (3) past seasons since 1980 showing similarities on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENSO> & Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden-Julian_oscillation>Indices. These are namely the 1988, 1995, and 1998 Seasons *[Fig. 1 <http://www.typhoon2000.ph/t2koutlook/figure1.gif>]*. The typhoon activity in 1988 and 1995 were normal during the start of the active season (June to July), however, 1998 was somewhat unique because the first Philippine tropical cyclone formed later than usual, July 8 by the name of AKANG (see 1998 Season<http://www.typhoon2000.ph/season.htm>). That '98 event was very similar to this years' 2010 Philippine typhoon season. Although the first Philippine TC, by the name of AGATON (OMAIS), developed during the peak of the El Niño (dry) event in March 2010, it was followed by BASYANG (CONSON) on July 11 - about four months later. Although not exactly the same, this 2010 Season will be worth watching especially during the last quarter. The similarities of the last quarter trend during an El Niño event shifting to La Niña are alarming as past data reveal destructive typhoons landfalling and crossing the Philippines, particularly over Luzon and Visayas. This pattern has been observed using the MJO Indices of 1988, 1995, & 1998. In 1988, Typhoons UNSANG (RUBY) and YONING (SKIP) crossed Central Luzon and Visayas respectively; while in 1995, Typhoon PEPENG (ZACK) crossed the Visayas and Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) caused extreme destruction upon crossing Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Central Luzon including Metro Manila; then finally in 1998, two (2) Super Typhoons: ILIANG (ZEB) crossed Northern Luzon and followed in just a couple of days by LOLENG (BABS) traversing Southeastern & Central Luzon in a slow pace. Now, looking at these destructive typhoons, all of them took place between October 01 to November 30 - which showed a wet-phased MJO patterns over the Philippines (120-130 E Lon) *[Fig. 2<http://www.typhoon2000.ph/t2koutlook/figure2.gif> ]*. During a wet-phase/blue (dry-phase/orange) MJO, multiple or back-to-back (zero or one) intense (weak) tropical cyclones develop especially if it is within the active typhoon season (to learn more about MJO, click here<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden-Julian_oscillation>). *CONCLUSION* The above analysis reveals a strong possibility for the occurrence of dangerous typhoons over the Philippines during the last quarter of 2010 - whether it will make landfall or not, will depend on the steering layer-factors affecting the movement of typhoons. This Philippine typhoon forecast for 2010 is based on analysis brought about by the ENSO conditions, from a moderate to strong El Nino shifting abruptly into La Nina, and the past MJO Indices which revealed typhoon frequency during wet-phased events. Other atmospheric/environmental factors that affect TC development are not included in this forecast. ------------------------------ *Important Note:** **Please keep in mind that the above typhoon forecast, does not guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes in this forecast can happen **within the designated typhoon season. DO NOT USE THIS FOR LIFE OR DEATH DECISIONS. THIS FORECAST WILL BE USED ONLY AS AN ADDED TOOL TO DISASTER- RISK AREAS INTENDED FOR AWARENESS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. KINDLY REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY IN YOUR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES FOR OFFICIAL WARNINGS, BULLETINS, AVISORIES & FORECASTS.* ------------------------------ *>> The next typhoon forecast outlook will be issued only if necessary. Source of reference: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center MJO and ENSO Page Sections <http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/>. ------------------------------ Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com and Naga College Foundation-Typhoon Preparedness Center All Rights Reserved * __._,_.___ Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional Change settings via the Web<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/typhoon2000ph_stormlist/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnZWFnM201BF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzEzNTE0NjU3BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTA4MzYxNQRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNzdG5ncwRzdGltZQMxMjg2ODU5Nzgw>(Yahoo! ID required) Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest<[email protected]?subject=email+delivery:+Digest>| Switch to Fully Featured<[email protected]?subject=change+delivery+format:+Fully+Featured> Visit Your Group <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/typhoon2000ph_stormlist;_ylc=X3oDMTJlcjhnYzdiBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzEzNTE0NjU3BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTA4MzYxNQRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNocGYEc3RpbWUDMTI4Njg1OTc4MA-->| Yahoo! 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