On Sat, 16 Nov 2013 23:36:44 -0800 (PST)
Akira Tsuchiya <akira...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I want to ask all of you one quick question.
> Do you think Git will get more popularity than Subversion and
> Subversion will be obsolete in the near future?

Depend on how one is looking at it.

On the free software scene, Git is *the* leading VCS.  And while it
certainly has its shortcomings, it's already there and it still

But then there's the so-called "enterprise", and people working there
quite often have different requirements and different mindsets, and
there are CEOs who are conservative, sometimes overly so.
Yes, I'm not talking about those "fancy" enterprises like github or
docker or you-name-it -- they're those 20% described in the
provocative [2], I'm talking about those big old enterprises existing
for many years.  They have management problems (seen that pointy-haired
boss in Dilbert cartoons?), fear of F/OSS or lack of expertise to cope
with it.
Another problem is apparent lack of "enterprisey" packages targeting
Git.  Subversion is a) being sold; b) enjoying a set of non-free tools
targeted at enterprises, such as server-side hosting solutions with
fancy GUI MMC snap-ins with reach access controls (seems like a
must-have feature for many shops) etc *and paid support*, well explained
in [1] by one of Git for Windows maintainers.

Another point to consider is that certain shops just do not need all
the features a powerful DVCS might give them so Subversion is just
"good enough" for them (see [2] again).

Also note that Subversion is not the single player in the enterprise
world -- there are also popular commercial CVCSes, rather widely

So my take on this:
* In our IT world which is, somewhat unfortunately, driven by fad
  cycles, Subversion is definitely out of its fad cycle while Git is
  riding its popularity wave.  So it the world of F/OSS it's here to
  stay until disrupted by an equally successful project.
* Subversion is there to stay as well, and this is backed by a
  completely other set of reasons.

1. https://groups.google.com/d/msg/msysgit/phVulfbQnGM/JxELse0-HnUJ
2. http://blog.red-bean.com/sussman/?p=79

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