udayaw opened a new pull request, #40016:
URL: https://github.com/apache/beam/pull/40016

   **Please** add a meaningful description for your change here
   
   `ReadFromKafkaDoFn` reports a fully caught-up partition as having a backlog 
of 1, never 0.
   
   The backlog handed to the `TimestampPolicy` comes from the restriction 
tracker:
   
   ```java
   new TimestampPolicyContext(
       (long) ((HasProgress) tracker).getProgress().getWorkRemaining(), 
Instant.now());
   ```
   
   `GrowableOffsetRangeTracker.getProgress()` computes that as:
   
   ```java 
   final long completedEnd = lastAttemptedOffset == null ? range.getFrom() : 
lastAttemptedOffset;
   final long remainingEnd = Math.max(completedEnd, 
rangeEndEstimator.estimate());
   return Progress.from(completedEnd - range.getFrom(), remainingEnd - 
completedEnd);
   
   RangeEndEstimator.estimate() is documented as an exclusive end offset, and
   in KafkaIO it is consumer.position() + consumer.currentLag().
   lastAttemptedOffset, however, is the last inclusive offset claimed. Once at
   least one record has been claimed, workRemaining == realBacklog + 1.
   
   ```
   
   `RangeEndEstimator.estimate()` is documented as an exclusive end offset, and
   in KafkaIO it is `consumer.position() + consumer.currentLag()`.
   lastAttemptedOffset, however, is the last inclusive offset claimed. Once at
   least one record has been claimed, `workRemaining == realBacklog + 1`.
   
   
   **Change**
   updateWatermarkManually now takes the exclusive next offset and the latest 
end
   offset estimate directly and computes
   `max(estimatedEndOffset, nextOffset) - nextOffset`, matching the gauge. Each
   call site already had expectedOffset in hand, maintained as
   `rawRecord.offset() + 1 and consumer.position(topicPartition)`.
   
   TimestampPolicy.PartitionContext#getMessageBacklog's javadoc previously read
   "latest offset of the partition - last processed record offset", which 
describes
   the buggy inclusive arithmetic. Reworded to state that both offsets are
   exclusive and that zero means fully caught up.
   
   Long.MIN_VALUE, the sentinel latestOffsetEstimator holds when the position is
   unknown, still yields a backlog of 0 via the max, matching today's behaviour 
on
   that path.
   
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