Dear Colleagues,

I am writing a report for infoDev on demand patterns for ICT in
sub-Saharan Africa with the overall goal being to convince telecom
operators that there is more demand for services that they might think,
and thus that there is money to be made in rolling out more
infrastructure. (Astute readers may recall a request for examples that I
sent out some months ago.) Since mobile phones have emerged as the
"killer app" (at least for the time being), many of the cases I have
been studying do, in fact, deliver services over the GSM network.

My research has lead me to the preliminary recommendation (among others)
that telecoms adopt a Prahalad-like approach: basically, that they
package mobile telephony in quantities that customers in sub-Saharan
Africa can afford, using what could be considered the prepaid model,
Version 2.0: instead of scratch cards, end-users could "top-up" their
accounts using the handsets themselves.  Now, however, my research has
led me to "Stimulating Investment in Network Development: Roles for
Regulators" <http://www.regulateonline.org/content/view/435/31/>. In
this publication, one of the authors, Amy Mahan, makes a compelling
argument that the pre-paid model produces negative incentives to
building infrastructure. In essence, her arguments follow reasoning
perhaps best expressed by de Soto; namely, that relationships are what
is important, and are themselves a source of capital. By signing that
hated two-year service agreement with Cingular or Verizon, we in the
developed world are in essence sharing some of the business risk with
the telecom, thus enabling them to make some predictions about their
customer base, churn rate, etc., and enabling them to invest in
infrastructure accordingly. How can a telecom operator have a
relationship with its customers if it doesn't even know how many of them
there are, let alone who or where they are?

Thoughts?

Peter Baldwin

-- 
URL: www.anapurnawebdesign.com
CV:  www.peterbaldwin.info

"Whenever I watch TV and see those poor starving kids all over the
world, I can't help but cry. I mean I'd love to be skinny like that, but
not with all those flies and death and stuff." --Mariah Carey




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