I believe your calculations presume independent samples.
Because there are known low frequency phenomena in the atmosphere the
purely statistical probability (leaving out physical arguments) that
the observations are distinct from a null hypothesis of no sustained
warming, while surely quite high, is nowhere near as high as is
obtained from assuming independent samples.
Also, just because the probability of an event is greater than 1% is
not even advanced as a sufficient argument for responding to it. It
also has to be a condition that is obviously dangerous.
Now, I believe it is, but you didn't assert that. So your argument
as presented isn't especially compelling.
mt
On 7/13/06, Roger Coppock <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> I do know that the probability
> that the Earth's global mean surface temperature
> is slowly rising is roughly 20 nines, or
> 99.999999999999999999%. That is well above
> 1%, and that clearly should be a policy concern.
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated
venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of
global environmental change.
Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the
submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not
gratuitously rude.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
