"Eli Rabett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > Michael Tobis wrote: >> Hurricanes may be climatologically significant in their own right, >> independent of whether they affect populated areas directly, (they do >> move energy around) so, maybe. >> >> However, one swallow doesn't make a summer and all the usual caveats, etc. >> > This is more like a roc than a swallow. However, using first order > linear reasoning, since tropical storms are to first order heat engines > (see the very nice article by Kerry Emanuel in Physics Today > http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-59/iss-8/p74.html ) a large hurricane > will have a very strong cooling effect on the sea surface temperature > and thus it would be unlikely that another large storm could follow > along the same path for some time. In that case a mars size hurricane > could be the whole summer.
"IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM." http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCDCP2 Perhaps a very interesting record in the works. Might this also make it a record setter for energy dissipation? This is Ioke's storm tracking page for the moment: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/IOKE.php but as it is crossing the dateline it apparently falls out of NOAA's area of responsibility. Chris Mooney wonders if, if it reaches it highest projected wind speeds, it should be Category 6. http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/08/ernesto_strengthening_a_possib. php I do recall some mention of Category 6 before, is that a real discussion? Coby --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
