----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Don Libby" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Newsgroups: gmane.science.general.global-change
Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2006 6:56 AM
Subject: [Global Change: 565] Scenario A1-T


>
> Here's an idea: let's increase nuclear power plants 10-fold by the year
> 2100.  Not bad, eh?
>
> IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
> World - A1T AIM
> Primary Energy            2000       2100
>     Nuclear                  11 EJ      112 EJ
>
> http://www.unep.no/climate/ipcc/emission/data/allscen.htm
>
> -dl

Currently the world is building about 150 new coal-fired power base-load 
power plants per year.  If we build 80 new nuclear plants per year we'd 
reach a stable global inventory of about 4,000 plants in about 50 years, 10 
times higher than today's roughly 400 plants world-wide.

A1T and B1 are two scenarios that stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations 
by 2100.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-5.htm

In A1T, coal rises to almost double the current level in 2050, then drops to 
about half the current level in 2100, with the gap filled by biomass and 
other renewables. The nuclear power plant build-up is scheduled for the 
first half of the century, to be completed by 2050.  In the other 
stabilization scenario (B1), nuclear power increases only 6-fold by 2050 
consistent with construction of about 50 plants per year.

It looks as though we should soon resume the 30-per-year pace of new nuclear 
power plant construction that was achieved during the late 1970's and early 
1980's if we want to put the world on a course to stabilize atmospheric CO2 
concentrations by 2100.

-dl




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