Surely the debate about the Sun has been over with respect to the last 30 years, even without such work. And, wouldn't this paper imply underestimate of climate positive feedbacks? Which would not be good news.
I'm approaching this from the point of view of someone who's been dealing with 'sceptic' arguments on public discussion groups. So I'm fully aware that attribution studies are the only scientific approach. But as the 'contrarist faithful' don't like models. I've had to try to argue without reference to them. Prior apologies to any proper scientists here. I've zoomed in on GISS' summary of 2005 temperatures for the following 'soundbyte'. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ "Global warming is now 0.6°C in the past three decades and 0.8°C in the past century. It is no longer correct to say that "most global warming occurred before 1940". More specifically, there was slow global warming, with large fluctuations, over the century up to 1975 and subsequent rapid warming of almost 0.2°C per decade." CRU find a lesser increase - but I've always used GISS as most of the sceptics I've encountered have. Just some examples, Lean 2000 et al: http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen (1991), Length of the solar cycle:An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science,254, 698-700. Shown wrong by Damon & Laut: http://www.realclimate.org/damon&laut_2004.pdf 192kb pdf I quote from there, "If Friis-Christensen and Lassen [1991] had been correct, there should have been 11 global warming events during that time equivalent to the contemporaneous event. However, the current event is unique and obviously of anthropogenic origin." Once their work is corrected, as it is by Damon & Laut, there is no trend ín the last 30 years. Usoskin 2003, http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/Sola2-PRL_published.pdf 191kb pdf Wiggles, no indication of up or down trend. Muscheler 2005, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf 593kb pdf No current trend especially in view of the size of past deviations. Graph of GCR counts http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=42 temperature beige lines GCR bue & brown, Reducing trend. Neutron counter data: http://ulysses.sr.unh.edu/NeutronMonitor/Misc/neutron2.html No overall trend, it's intensity follows the pattern of sunspot cycles. To which I might be adding Scafetta/West 2006, got to read again but on first read: Figure 2, doesn't explain the last 30 years, indeed they note: "Note the good correspondence of the patterns in particular during the pre-industrial era (1600- 1900) and the significant discrepancy occurring in the 20th century with a clear surplus warming." However they also say: "For example, the temperature record peaks around 1950 while the solar temperature signature shown in Figure 2 peaks around 1960, however, by adopting a different TSI proxy reconstruction [e.g., Hoyt and Schatten, 1997], the two peaks would almost coincide." Statements like that mean I don't like relying on the paper, what kind of theory requires one to shift datasets to hold the argument together? But it's been quoted to me by a 'sceptic' (as opposed to the loonies on many discussion groups), who's honestly taking on my argument and finding the last 30 years issue troubling. Is anyone else finding that the sceptics are becoming more and more like YEC/ID adherents, or the 9/11 fantasists? http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/mbsn/F2801717?thread=3061727&skip=1520&show=20#p40558931 (The Archsceptic character is a published research scientist and an Associate Director of Research at a British university.) --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
