> For consequences like that, I'd hope a one in 10,000 chance would do it!
I think meteorite strikes and what, or rather how little, we do about them is an indication that even for extinction we do take account of probability. > > You should just accept the straightforward explanation, the vast > > majority of the population is not convinced that climate change is > > gonna wipe us out. > > You keep stating this in a way that implies it means it must be the truth. > I don't think there is any good reason to make that leap, in this issue or > any others! There is very little we can state as being true with 100% probability. I think there's a spectrum of possibilities/opinions as to how bad climate change can/will be, and I think that Alastair's take on this goes well beyond the IPCC consensus or most climate scientists' own opinions. You are not nearly as pessimistic as Alastair, but still on the pessimistic side of general opinion on climate change and peak oil. The IPCC does not predict the end of civilisation, and their assumptions on petroleum availability rather differ from those of a number of prominent petroleum geologists associated with "peak oil". http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/EGUVienna2006.pdf Have a look a page 10 of Laherrere's paper, where his projection of natural gas supply in the 21st century is compared to IPCC scenarios. The IPCC chapter on scenarios includes a discussion as to why they chose those particular scenarios. They excluded massive technological change, as in such a future climate change wouldn't matter, and likewise excluded apocalyptic WWIII nuclear destruction type scenarios, arguing that likewise the world would be worrying about other things. But, be that as it may, I think the scenarios amount to an argument that climate change and business as usual are quite compatible (in the basic sense that climate change won't shut the world economy down / bring about the end of world civilisation). --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
