> > Nice isn't it? I caught that too. Make it a little difficult to
> > trust those aforementioned models upon which so VERY much is being
> > wagered.
> Well, if you refuse to consider theory and you basically make up your own
> paleoclimate evidence, and then go ahead and misconstrue what a GCM is, and
> misconstrue what whatever you have got your hands on actually does, I
> suppose that the model evidence WOULD indeed start to carry a bit too much
> weight.
I don't "refuse to consider theory", I give more weight to fact
though. At what point did I "make up my own" paleodata? I used NOAA's
source. The model predictions are theory (and incomplete ones at
that), not fact, the instrument record is fact. The paleoclimate
studies are quasi-fact. They might be off, but they are unlikely to be
wrong. Yes, I acknowledge that there might be fairly unpleasant peaks
and valleys hidden by the plateau graph, however, on the whole, the
phenomenon that it demonstrates is rather compelling.
this is what I downloaded.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/index.html
"
OVERVIEW: MAGICC and SCENGEN are coupled, user-friendly interactive
software suites that allow users to investigate future climate change
and its uncertainties at both the global-mean and regional levels.
MAGICC carries through calculations at the global-mean level using the
same upwelling-diffusion climate model that has been and is employed by
the IPCC. The latest version gives the same global-mean warming and
sea-level rise rise results as published in the IPCC Third Assessment
Report (TAR). SCENGEN uses these results, together with results from a
set of coupled Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and
a detailed baseline climatology, to produce spatially-detailed
information regarding future changes in temperature and precipitation,
changes in their variability, and a range of other statistics.
"
I didn't vary the assumptions, and I didn't try to get the results I
wanted, I simply ran it to see what it spit out. The results were
informative. Again, I will state that I don't consider this
difinitive. Yesterday is difinitive, tomorrow is speculative.
> Can Bill find a way to throw out the instrumental record too? Having no
> scientific evidence whatsoever except what one basically dreams up would
> leave room for a maximally free-form theory. What a glorious opportunity for
> self-expression! Free science from all those awkward "constraints" that the
> conventional scientists are always going on about!
You'd do better to respond to something that I actually said,
rather than making predictions on what I am going to say now :)
Shouldn't a scientist always be questioning his assumptions?
Especially the unstated ones?
One of my professors once told a story about phillips camera
company. They were trying to design a new lens, and decided to go all
the way back to "what is a lens" in their new design. Up to that
point, basically all lenses had been made from machined glass or
plastic, but by reframing the term as "a device for predictably bending
light in a prescribed pattern", they were able to invent the fluid lens
which was far more capable at focusing responses. Sciences sometimes
get burdened by their own "knowledge".
> With a little creative effort one might even bring leprechauns into it.
This is exactly the problem. Specialists are so abysmal at seeing
the bigger picture. Look, I checked out your resume, and I am in fact
quite impressed by your achievements to date, and I am sure that
there's a lot about climatology and atmospheric modelling I could learn
from you, however, you need to acknowledge that you do not in fact know
everything about it. No one does. Not everyone chooses to make this
their life's work, but that doesn't mean that the knowledge of the
interested ametuer is without merit. How many of the discoveries that
shaped our world were made by just such people? How many times has it
happened that a simple "that's stupid" stated by a novice has sent an
experienced researcher off in a promising direction?
One of the things that every engineer is taught is "there's
theory, and then there's practice". If you knew how many times I have
had to repair plans prepared by PHDs who neglected vital real world
elements, it would make you blanch. Theory is not the end of study,
it's the beginning.
> Bill's talent for generating a burgeoning collection of glib fallacies seems
> a little too practiced for me to trust his intentions, but whether he is
> doing this professionally or as a hobby, I don't think it is doing us any
> good here.
Thank you! It's nice to know that I can still throw a spanner in
the works! It's Impressive that I have annoyed you enough to have you
thinking someone would PAY me to do it! No, I am not paid for this (do
you have any evidence that anyone really pays for this sort of thing??)
In your second response, you told me that I should "calm down,
lose my attachment to my ideas, respect people who have thought about
this stuff for decades, and start thinking". One of the problems with
this is that in order for your ideas and knowledge to change my mind,
they must first be presented. You haven't done that. You haven't, in
the course of this conversation, corrected a single one of what you
consider to be my misaprehensions. all you've done is stated "you're
wrong", when did that ever win a convert? Even if you are correct
(which I will grant you will be more often than me being correct on
this subject) all that ever does is make enemies. Did you really
create and start moderating this group just so that you could select
who to abuse and insult?
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