Michael Tobis wrote:
> I'd be interested to know what the longest time scale is that
> economists can generally agree on a prediction, compared to the time
> constants of the system.
Well in one sense it depends on the prediction. A prediction that in
one hundred years a combination of sin taxes and carbon trading will be
a cheaper way to reduce emmissions than a raft of subsidies and fines.
This is a long term prediction economists are very confident in. Even
though it is conceivable many facets of economic theory will change,
some things that were discovered at the inception of economic theory
are still valid today. I don't think this is what you are talking about
however. Predictions of economies based on demographic change ought to
be very useful for long range forecasts. For instance the dependency
ratio in China will substantially affect growth prospects. The pattern
of growth there should approximate Japan's when Japan was at the same
point of the demographic cycle. Basically, growth will mysteriously
stall when the dependency ratio curves upwards (I am not sure exactly
when this is going to happen but it will happen, I would lay money on
it)
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