I have fixed a couple of typos.
If you divide the last figure 11.07 by 0.0135 and 12 then you get 68.3
years. However I don't really expect the .0135 per month rate to stay
steady until the arctic is ice free in summer let alone after it
becomes ice free in summer. If you take the last September extent of
5.9 million Km^2 and divide by 0.135 and by 12 you get 37 years to be
ice free in summer if the 0.0135pm rate continues. I would have thought
that by now further acceleration was more likely than it being due to
an oscillation.
Now how would you phrase the claim on Foresight Exchange ( a play money
market)? Perhaps something like:
If the best fit line for 2006 and 2007 is greater than or equal to 0.02
per month the claim pays FX$1.00
if greater than or equal to 0.015 per month and less 0.02 pm then the
claim pays FX$0.80
if greater than or equal to 0.01 per month and less 0.015 pm then the
claim pays FX$0.60
if greater than or equal to 0.005 per month and less 0.01 pm then the
claim pays FX$0.40
if greater than or equal to 0 per month and less 0.005 pm then the
claim pays FX$0.20
if less than 0 the claim pays FX$0
What value would you expect such a claim to trade at?
Would a claim like that attract more people to forsight exchange?
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